358  
FXUS01 KWBC 071857  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
256 PM EDT SAT JUN 07 2025  
 
VALID 00Z SUN JUN 08 2025 - 00Z TUE JUN 10 2025  
 
...ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER SETUP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE  
SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...  
 
...HEAVY SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS TO POSE BOTH A FLASH FLOODING AND  
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND MID-ATLANTIC...  
 
...STIFLING HEAT DOME TO BUILD IN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEST AND  
THE WESTERN GULF COAST; HOTTEST TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO NORMAL  
CENTERED IN THE NORTHWEST...  
 
A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A WET AND  
STORMY WEEKEND AND UPCOMING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN  
U.S.. FOCUSING ON THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE LOWER 48 TO START, A  
HOT AND STEAMY AIR-MASS IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO AS FAR EAST AS THE  
NORTHEAST COAST. SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND  
INTO TONIGHT FROM THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TO THE SOUTHERN  
MID-ATLANTIC. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) IS MOST CONCERNED  
WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE MID-SOUTH WHERE AN ENHANCED  
RISK (THREAT LEVEL 3/5) IS PRESENT OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI,  
NORTHERN ALABAMA, NORTHERN GEORGIA, AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE.  
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE GREATEST CONCERN THERE, WHILE THE REST OF  
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED REGIONS OF THE SOUTH COULD SEE ANY  
COMBINATION OF DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, OR TORNADOES. IN  
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER, FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO OF CONCERN  
FROM THE ARKLATEX ON EAST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WHERE WPC HAS A  
SLIGHT RISK (THREAT LEVEL 2/4) THROUGH TONIGHT. SUNDAY'S SEVERE  
WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EVEN GREATER WITH SPC PLACING A MODERATE RISK  
(THREAT LEVEL 4/5) ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA  
AND NORTHERN TEXAS. POWERFUL STORMS CAPABLE OF GENERATING  
EXCEPTIONAL WIND GUSTS AND SIGNIFICANT HAIL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS, AS WELL AS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WHICH HAS PROMPTED  
WPC TO ISSUE A SLIGHT RISK FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON EAST ALONG  
THE RED RIVER AND INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. A SLIGHT RISK (THREAT  
LEVEL 2/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO PRESENT IN PORTIONS OF THE  
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BY MONDAY, THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO  
MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST, BUT IT IS STILL LIKELY TO  
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS THROUGHOUT THE SOUTH. SPC DOES  
HAVE A SIZABLE SLIGHT RISK (THREAT LEVEL 2/5) FROM THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST.  
 
FARTHER NORTH, ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS THE CULPRIT IN IGNITING  
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND  
NORTHEAST TODAY. SPC DOES HAVE A MARGINAL RISK (THREAT LEVEL 1/5)  
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM SOUTHERN  
CANADA. MEANWHILE, THE NORTHEAST AND OHIO VALLEY FEATURE SATURATED  
SOILS AND TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS; AN IDEAL RECIPE FOR FLASH  
FLOODING THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. WPC HAS A PAIR OF SLIGHT  
RISKS IN THESE REGIONS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL THREAT PERSISTS IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC  
ON SUNDAY AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NO SHORTAGE OF  
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SUPPORT ADDITIONAL AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. A  
SLIGHT RISK IS BEING INTRODUCED FOR THESE REGIONS FOR SUNDAY,  
INCLUDING THE DC/BALTIMORE METRO AREAS. MONDAY FEATURES AN  
EXPANSIVE MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT STRETCHES  
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON NORTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN  
MID-ATLANTIC. AREAS MOST PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING ON MONDAY WILL  
LIKELY BE PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS,  
AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WHERE SOILS WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO GROW  
MORE AND MORE SATURATED FOLLOWING THE STORMY WEATHER OVER THE  
WEEKEND.  
 
WHILE THE SOUTH AND EAST ARE MIRED IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN,  
THE WEST WILL BE MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. THE LONE  
EXCEPTIONS ARE THE ELEVATED REGIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST  
WHICH INCLUDE MOUNTAIN RANGES SUCH AS THE SIERRA NEVADA, THE GREAT  
BASIN, THE WASATCH, THE MOGOLLON RIM, AND AS FAR EAST AS THE  
COLORADO/NEW MEXICO ROCKIES. THESE AREAS CAN SEE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DESERT  
SOUTHWEST AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL NOT ONLY BE DRY, BUT GROW  
INCREASINGLY HOT EACH DAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HOTTEST  
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO NORMAL WILL BE FOUND IN THE NORTHWEST  
WITH DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY MONDAY,  
DAYTIME HIGHS IN PARTS OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON WILL MAKE A RUN AT  
THE CENTURY MARK. THERE ARE HEAT ADVISORIES AND EXCESSIVE HEAT  
WATCHES THAT REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BOTH  
SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO HIGHLIGHT THE STIFLING HEAT THAT HEATRISK  
SUGGESTS WILL SPORT MODERATE TO MAJOR RISKS FOR HEAT-RELATED  
IMPACTS. PLEASE VISIT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEATRISK/ FOR MORE  
INFORMATION ON HEATRISK. SIMILAR MODERATE-TO-MAJOR HEATRISK  
POTENTIAL EXISTS IN THE GREAT VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA, THE GREAT  
BASIN, THE MOJAVE DESERT, AND INTO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN  
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO EASILY  
REACH THE 90S AND EVEN THE 100S (PARTICULARLY THE MOJAVE AND LOWER  
COLORADO BASIN) EACH DAY. NOTE THAT SEARING HEAT IS ALSO ON TAP  
FROM SOUTH TEXAS ON EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. SPOTTY HEAT  
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT OVER WEST TEXAS WHILE HEATRISK DEPICTS  
WIDESPREAD MAJOR IMPACTS (HEAT THAT EFFECTS ANYONE WITHOUT  
EFFECTIVE COOLING/HYDRATION) FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON EAST  
THROUGH THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA  
THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
MULLINAX  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 

 
 
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