223
FXUS01 KWBC 081944
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
343 PM EDT SUN JUN 08 2025
VALID 00Z MON JUN 09 2025 - 00Z WED JUN 11 2025
...ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER SETUP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY...
...HEAVY SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS TO POSE BOTH A FLASH FLOODING AND
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, MID-ATLANTIC,
AND NORTHEAST...
...STIFLING HEAT DOME TO BUILD IN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEST AND
THE WESTERN GULF COAST; HOTTEST TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO NORMAL
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST...
A PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL ACT AS CATALYSTS FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN U.S.. THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ARE MOST AT-RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT, HIGHLIGHTED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)
PLACING NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA UNDER A MODERATE RISK
(THREAT LEVEL 4/5) WHICH INCLUDES THE GREATER DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METRO AREA. THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS A LONG-TRACK LINE OF INTENSE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUST POTENTIAL TONIGHT THAT
COULD TRACK A LONG ENOUGH DISTANCE AND PRODUCE ENOUGH DAMAGE TO BE
CONSIDERED A "DERECHO". THERE IS ALSO THE CONCERN FOR TORNADOES
AND LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT IN THIS REGION AS
WELL. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ALSO EXTENDS FARTHER AWAY FROM
THE RED RIVER REGION WITH SEVERE STORMS STRETCHING FROM THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES ON EAST TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEYS. FARTHER EAST, A COMPACT STORM SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FROM THE OHIO RIVER ON EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST COASTS. SPC HAS A LENGTHY SLIGHT RISK (THREAT LEVEL 2/5)
THAT GOES FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA ON NORTH TO THE DC/BALTIMORE METRO
AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY AND
TONIGHT, WPC HAS SEVERAL SLIGHT RISK AREAS (THREAT LEVEL 2/4) FOR
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND ARKLATEX,
ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, AND FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON
EAST TO THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER.
THE SEVERE AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL CONTINUES TOMORROW
THROUGHOUT THE SOUTH AND UP THE EAST COAST AS THE SOUTHERN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INCHES CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST AND A NEW ENCROACHING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SLIGHT
RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE IN PLACE IN THE DEEP SOUTH AND
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT STEMS FROM
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE SOUTH TO AREAS AS FAR NORTH AS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE FROM THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY ON EAST ALONG THE GULF AND EAST COASTS. SPC FEATURES
AN EXPANSIVE MARGINAL RISK (THREAT LEVEL 1/5) IN THESE AREAS,
WHILE WPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK POSTED FRO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
WESTERN TEXAS. FARTHER SOUTH, FLORIDA'S RAINFALL/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE
COLD FRONT INCHES CLOSER TO THE PANHANDLE EACH DAY.
WHILE THE SOUTH AND EAST ARE MIRED IN A STORMY WEATHER PATTERN,
THE WEST WILL BE MOSTLY DRY TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND AND TO OPEN THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THE LONE EXCEPTIONS ARE THE MOUNTAINS RANGES
THROUGHOUT THE WEST WHICH INCLUDE THE SIERRA NEVADA, THE GREAT
BASIN, AND ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. LOOK FOR
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THAT DISSIPATE EACH NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL NOT ONLY BE DRY,
BUT GROW HOTTER EACH DAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR EARLY-MID JUNE ARE
MOST LIKELY TO BE FOUND IN THE NORTHWEST WITH DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES ENCROACHING UPON DAILY RECORD HIGHS THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
NORTHWEST WITH SOME SPOTS FORECAST TO HIT THE CENTURY MARK. NWS
HEATRISK SHOWS WIDESPREAD MODERATE IMPACTS AND SCATTERED AREAS OF
MAJOR IMPACTS ACROSS THE PORTLAND METRO AREA TODAY AND THE
COLUMBIA BASIN ON MONDAY. SIMILAR HEATRISK CRITERIA EXISTS FROM
THE GREAT VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA ON SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO EASILY
REACH THE 90S AND EVEN THE 100S (PARTICULARLY THE MOJAVE DESERT
AND LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN) EACH DAY. FARTHER EAST, SEARING
HEAT REMAINS A COMMON OCCURRENCE FROM THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS ON
EAST THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS AND IN FAR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.
HEATRISK SHOWS MAJOR HEAT IMPACTS (HEAT THAT EFFECTS ANYONE
WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING/HYDRATION) IN METRO AREAS THAT INCLUDE
SAN ANTONIA AND HOUSTON THROUGH MONDAY.
MULLINAX
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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