223  
FXUS01 KWBC 081944  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
343 PM EDT SUN JUN 08 2025  
 
VALID 00Z MON JUN 09 2025 - 00Z WED JUN 11 2025  
 
...ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER SETUP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE  
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY...  
 
...HEAVY SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS TO POSE BOTH A FLASH FLOODING AND  
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, MID-ATLANTIC,  
AND NORTHEAST...  
 
...STIFLING HEAT DOME TO BUILD IN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEST AND  
THE WESTERN GULF COAST; HOTTEST TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO NORMAL  
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST...  
 
A PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL ACT AS CATALYSTS FOR WIDESPREAD  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE START OF THE  
UPCOMING WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN U.S.. THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS ARE MOST AT-RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON  
AND INTO TONIGHT, HIGHLIGHTED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)  
PLACING NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA UNDER A MODERATE RISK  
(THREAT LEVEL 4/5) WHICH INCLUDES THE GREATER DALLAS/FORT WORTH  
METRO AREA. THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS A LONG-TRACK LINE OF INTENSE  
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUST POTENTIAL TONIGHT THAT  
COULD TRACK A LONG ENOUGH DISTANCE AND PRODUCE ENOUGH DAMAGE TO BE  
CONSIDERED A "DERECHO". THERE IS ALSO THE CONCERN FOR TORNADOES  
AND LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT IN THIS REGION AS  
WELL. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ALSO EXTENDS FARTHER AWAY FROM  
THE RED RIVER REGION WITH SEVERE STORMS STRETCHING FROM THE TX/OK  
PANHANDLES ON EAST TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
VALLEYS. FARTHER EAST, A COMPACT STORM SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE  
UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER  
THREAT FROM THE OHIO RIVER ON EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND  
SOUTHEAST COASTS. SPC HAS A LENGTHY SLIGHT RISK (THREAT LEVEL 2/5)  
THAT GOES FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA ON NORTH TO THE DC/BALTIMORE METRO  
AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY AND  
TONIGHT, WPC HAS SEVERAL SLIGHT RISK AREAS (THREAT LEVEL 2/4) FOR  
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND ARKLATEX,  
ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, AND FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON  
EAST TO THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER.  
 
THE SEVERE AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL CONTINUES TOMORROW  
THROUGHOUT THE SOUTH AND UP THE EAST COAST AS THE SOUTHERN FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY INCHES CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST AND A NEW ENCROACHING  
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SLIGHT  
RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE IN PLACE IN THE DEEP SOUTH AND  
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT STEMS FROM  
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE SOUTH TO AREAS AS FAR NORTH AS  
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE FROM THE RIO  
GRANDE VALLEY ON EAST ALONG THE GULF AND EAST COASTS. SPC FEATURES  
AN EXPANSIVE MARGINAL RISK (THREAT LEVEL 1/5) IN THESE AREAS,  
WHILE WPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK POSTED FRO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND  
WESTERN TEXAS. FARTHER SOUTH, FLORIDA'S RAINFALL/THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE  
COLD FRONT INCHES CLOSER TO THE PANHANDLE EACH DAY.  
 
WHILE THE SOUTH AND EAST ARE MIRED IN A STORMY WEATHER PATTERN,  
THE WEST WILL BE MOSTLY DRY TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND AND TO OPEN THE  
UPCOMING WEEK. THE LONE EXCEPTIONS ARE THE MOUNTAINS RANGES  
THROUGHOUT THE WEST WHICH INCLUDE THE SIERRA NEVADA, THE GREAT  
BASIN, AND ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. LOOK FOR  
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING THAT DISSIPATE EACH NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL NOT ONLY BE DRY,  
BUT GROW HOTTER EACH DAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE  
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR EARLY-MID JUNE ARE  
MOST LIKELY TO BE FOUND IN THE NORTHWEST WITH DAILY HIGH  
TEMPERATURES ENCROACHING UPON DAILY RECORD HIGHS THROUGH TUESDAY.  
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR  
NORTHWEST WITH SOME SPOTS FORECAST TO HIT THE CENTURY MARK. NWS  
HEATRISK SHOWS WIDESPREAD MODERATE IMPACTS AND SCATTERED AREAS OF  
MAJOR IMPACTS ACROSS THE PORTLAND METRO AREA TODAY AND THE  
COLUMBIA BASIN ON MONDAY. SIMILAR HEATRISK CRITERIA EXISTS FROM  
THE GREAT VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA ON SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF  
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO EASILY  
REACH THE 90S AND EVEN THE 100S (PARTICULARLY THE MOJAVE DESERT  
AND LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN) EACH DAY. FARTHER EAST, SEARING  
HEAT REMAINS A COMMON OCCURRENCE FROM THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS ON  
EAST THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS AND IN FAR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.  
HEATRISK SHOWS MAJOR HEAT IMPACTS (HEAT THAT EFFECTS ANYONE  
WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING/HYDRATION) IN METRO AREAS THAT INCLUDE  
SAN ANTONIA AND HOUSTON THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
MULLINAX  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 
 
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