553
FXUS06 KWBC 091902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON JUNE 09 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 15 - 19 2025
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS (GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE) DEPICT A TRANSIENT PATTERN
DURING THE NEXT TWO WEEKS BUT AGREE THAT POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) DURING THIS
5-DAY PERIOD. THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE PEAKING IN
STRENGTH ON DAY 6, JUNE 15, WHEN 500-HPA HEIGHTS OF 588 DAM EXTEND AS FAR NORTH
AS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DUE TO THE BROAD
ANOMALOUS RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. THE LARGEST ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES (EXCEEDING 70
PERCENT) ARE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF COLORADO, NEW MEXICO, AND EASTERN ARIZONA
WHERE 5-DAY TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL
WHICH IS SUBSTANTIAL FOR MID-JUNE. COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FAVORED NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OR A SLIGHT LEAN TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
REGION. DOWNSTREAM OF AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS INLAND INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WHICH
WOULD USHER IN ONSHORE FLOW. THEREFORE, NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
ON DAYS 6 AND 7 (JUNE 15 AND 16), A STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR ENHANCED PRECIPITATION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS EAST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO CROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS ON DAYS 9 AND 10 (JUNE 18 AND 19). AT THE SAME TIME, THE
GEFS AND ECENS DEPICT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE SHIFTING
NORTHWEST TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THESE THREE
FACTORS RESULT IN THE OUTLOOK LEANING ON THE WET SIDE FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS FROM JUNE 15 TO 19. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WHERE A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT SEABREEZE
CONVECTION WHICH LEADS TO EITHER NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION OR ELEVATED
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. ALTHOUGH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THIS REGION. OUTSIDE OF THE DRY
CLIMATOLOGICAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST, THE RIDGE ALOFT FAVORS
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN ALONG WITH COLORADO AND
NEW MEXICO.
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
NORTHERN ALASKA, WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO THE GULF
OF ALASKA. CLOSER TO THE BUILDING RIDGE, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF MAINLAND ALASKA. THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS
GENERALLY FEATURE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
FOR MOST OF THE STATE WHICH IS LIKELY RELATED TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING
SOUTHERN ALASKA.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 17 - 23 2025
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANOMALOUS 500-HPA RIDGING
WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES (NEAR OR MORE THAN +30 METERS) PREVAIL
OVER THE SOUTHERN, CENTRAL, AND EASTERN CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR A MAJORITY OF THESE AREAS. BASED ON A SKILL-WEIGHTED CONSOLIDATION
OF THE GEFS AND ECENS REFORECASTS AND THE ANALOG TOOL DERIVED FROM THE MANUAL
500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND, THE LARGEST PROBABILITIES (EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT) ARE
FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. CONSISTENT WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, LOWER ABOVE-NORMAL PROBABILITIES OR NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ALL
THREE ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ITS
CLOSE PROXIMITY FAVORS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. DUE
TO CONFLICTING SIGNALS BETWEEN THE WARMER REFORECASTS AND COOLER UNCALIBRATED
MODEL OUTPUT ALONG WITH AN EXPECTED VARIABLE TEMPERATURE PATTERN WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST
AREAS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EAST TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE HIGHEST FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SOUTHERN TEXAS DUE TO AN INFLUX OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE. WITH THE LACK OF ANY WELL-DEFINED BOUNDARIES AND STRONG
FORCING, THE OUTLOOK FOLLOWED THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT LEAN
TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE GREAT PLAINS,
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND MUCH OF THE EAST. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SEABREEZE CONVECTION WHICH SUPPORTS ELEVATED
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. HURRICANE BARBARA
AND TROPICAL STORM COSME IN THE EAST PACIFIC ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN THE
NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER THIS
WEEK TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER STATES
THAT THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. A NUMBER OF ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT THIS
POTENTIAL TC TRACKING NORTHWEST WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED LOW TO
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION, THERE
IS LIKELY TO BE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE SHIFTING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY EARLY IN WEEK-2. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR WHAT WOULD INITIATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, THE OUTLOOK LEANED ON THE WETTER SIDE FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF
ANOMALOUS LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMING ESTABLISHED.
A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR A MAJORITY OF
MAINLAND ALASKA. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN WITH TIME, MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS LEAN ON THE WETTER SIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF MAINLAND ALASKA.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII. POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES ALSO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS OFFSET BY WEAK SIGNALS IN THE
PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19900619 - 20080612 - 19660520 - 19890607 - 19990529
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19660521 - 19900619 - 20080612 - 19890607 - 19990528
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 15 - 19 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 17 - 23 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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