901
FXUS06 KWBC 101936
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE JUNE 10 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 16 - 20 2025
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS (GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE) DEPICT A TRANSIENT PATTERN
DURING THE NEXT TWO WEEKS BUT AGREE THAT POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) DURING THIS
5-DAY PERIOD. DUE TO THE BROAD ANOMALOUS RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE CONUS. THE
LARGEST ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES (EXCEEDING 60 PERCENT) ARE
FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST AND PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS INLAND INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS WHICH WOULD USHER IN ONSHORE FLOW. THEREFORE, NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
ON DAYS 6 AND 7 (JUNE 16 AND 17), A STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR ENHANCED PRECIPITATION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS EAST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO CROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS ON DAYS 8 AND 9 (JUNE 18 AND 19). AT THE SAME TIME, THE
GEFS AND ECENS DEPICT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE SHIFTING
NORTHWEST TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THESE THREE
FACTORS RESULT IN THE OUTLOOK LEANING ON THE WET SIDE FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS FROM JUNE 16 TO 20. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA WHERE A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
SEABREEZE CONVECTION WHICH LEADS TO EITHER NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION OR
ELEVATED BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. ALTHOUGH ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THIS REGION.
OUTSIDE OF THE DRY CLIMATOLOGICAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST, THE
RIDGE ALOFT FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TO
NEW MEXICO.
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
NORTHERN ALASKA, WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO THE GULF
OF ALASKA. CLOSER TO THE BUILDING RIDGE, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS GENERALLY FEATURE SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR MOST OF THE STATE WHICH
IS LIKELY RELATED TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING SOUTHERN ALASKA. BASED ON
THE GEFS AND ECENS, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 18 - 24 2025
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANOMALOUS 500-HPA RIDGING
WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES (NEAR OR MORE THAN +30 METERS) PREVAIL
OVER THE SOUTHERN, CENTRAL, AND EASTERN CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR A MAJORITY OF THESE AREAS. BASED ON A SKILL-WEIGHTED CONSOLIDATION
OF THE GEFS AND ECENS REFORECASTS AND THE ANALOG TOOL DERIVED FROM THE MANUAL
500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND, THE LARGEST PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
(EXCEEDING 60 PERCENT) ARE FORECAST FOR THE PART OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST.
CONSISTENT WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, LOWER
ABOVE-NORMAL PROBABILITIES OR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALL THREE ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT
AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY FAVORS NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. DUE TO CONFLICTING SIGNALS
BETWEEN THE WARMER REFORECASTS AND COOLER UNCALIBRATED MODEL OUTPUT ALONG WITH
AN EXPECTED VARIABLE TEMPERATURE PATTERN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST AREAS FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EAST TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS,
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION.
THERE IS A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. FROM THERE, A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM NORTH DAKOTA TO WASHINGTON STATE AND ADJACENT
NORTHWESTERN OREGON; AND ALSO FROM TEXAS WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA. FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, THIS IS DUE TO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS, AND AN INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE.
TROPICAL STORMS BARBARA AND COSME IN THE EAST PACIFIC ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER THIS
WEEK TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER STATES
THAT THERE IS AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. A NUMBER OF ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT THIS
POTENTIAL TC TRACKING NORTHWEST WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED LOW TO
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION, THERE
IS LIKELY TO BE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE SHIFTING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY EARLY IN WEEK-2. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR WHAT WOULD INITIATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, THE OUTLOOK LEANED ON THE WETTER SIDE FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANOMALOUS
LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMING ESTABLISHED. IN CONTRAST, BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE INTERIOR
WEST. THIS AREA IS THOUGHT TO BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM PRIMARY STORM TRACKS
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR A MAJORITY OF
MAINLAND ALASKA. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN WITH TIME, MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS LEAN ON THE WETTER SIDE ACROSS MOST
OF MAINLAND ALASKA. BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII. POSITIVE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ALSO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS OFFSET BY WEAK SIGNALS IN THE
PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20080612 - 19890607 - 19900619 - 19790609 - 19830521
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20080613 - 19890607 - 19790609 - 19780531 - 19660521
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 16 - 20 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON N N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 18 - 24 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B B NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO B B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA B N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A N MAINE N A
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page