446
FXUS01 KWBC 110732
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
332 AM EDT WED JUN 11 2025
VALID 12Z WED JUN 11 2025 - 12Z FRI JUN 13 2025
...HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...HOT WEATHER CONTINUES OUT WEST WITH SOME MODERATION ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
THE MAIN THING MAKING WEATHER HEADLINES THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END
OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH A
PARTICULAR FOCUS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS, THE ARKLATEX
REGION AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE FUELED BY A MOIST LOW LEVEL JET, AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL SERVE AS
FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. THERE IS
A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS MUCH OF
THIS REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH ISOLATED 4-6 INCH TOTALS
WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. THEREFORE, A MODERATE RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE VALID FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL
TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
HERE WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY, AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
ANOTHER AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST, CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES, AND WPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH INTERSECTING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PAIRED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
ANOMALOUS HEAT BY MID-JUNE STANDARDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE GOVERNS THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN. THE MOST
IMPACTFUL HEAT WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WHERE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH 105 TO 110 DEGREES, AND
HEAT RISK REACHING THE MODERATE TO MAJOR CATEGORY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AS FAR NORTH AS
EASTERN WASHINGTON ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL COOL-DOWN ENSUES
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
HAMRICK
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