957
FXUS06 KWBC 111912
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED JUNE 11 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 17 - 21 2025
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS (GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE) DEPICT A TRANSIENT
CIRCULATION PATTERN DURING THE NEXT TWO WEEKS BUT AGREE THAT POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S.
(CONUS) AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST DURING THIS 5-DAY PERIOD. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IS DEPICTED OVER THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST, EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLE OF ALASKA AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MID-LEVEL RIDGING
AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA.
THE BROAD ANOMALOUS RIDGE PREDICTED OVER MOST OF THE CONUS FAVORS
WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE CONUS. THE LARGEST ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES (EXCEEDING 60 PERCENT) ARE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC, SOUTHEAST, AND EASTERN GULF COAST, AND OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
ENHANCED NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE INDICATED FOR THE
NORTHWEST, ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, WITH ENHANCED
TROPICAL MOISTURE. IT’S TOO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER OR NOT THIS MOISTURE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
MOST OF ALASKA, TIED TO WELL-ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. ODDS FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 60 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.
RELATIVELY WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS FAVOR WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE 50TH STATE.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS IS
ATTRIBUTED TO A VARIETY OF FACTORS THAT INCLUDE MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND
ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND EASTERN
STATES, INTERACTING WITH LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE BEING INTRODUCED INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH. IN
ADDITION, NEAR THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR, MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS (MCSS) TYPICALLY BRING ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION TO THE SPRING WHEAT AND CORN BELTS. THE WIDESPREAD WET PATTERN
OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS IS SUPPORTED BY THE REFORECAST AND RAW PRECIPITATION
GUIDANCE FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS SOLUTIONS. ELSEWHERE, AREAS THAT ARE FAR
ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE MAIN STORM TRACKS (MANY AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST) ARE FAVORED TO HAVE NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. IN ALASKA, MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS AGREE ON A SLIGHT TILT
TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE, WITH MOST OF THE REMAINING AREAS FAVORED TO BE NEAR NORMAL DUE TO WEAK
AND/OR CONFLICTING GUIDANCE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 19 - 25 2025
DURING WEEK-2, THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE PREDICT A SIMILAR CIRCULATION PATTERN
OVERALL TO THAT OF THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THOUGH WITH A SLIGHTLY WEAKER
TROUGH EXPECTED NEAR THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND SLIGHTLY
LESS POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER MUCH OF ALASKA.
REFORECAST, RAW, AND BIAS-CORRECTED TEMPERATURES GENERALLY FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING.
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 60 PERCENT OVER
THE SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION AND EASTERN GULF COAST. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH. FOR MOST OF THE ALASKA MAINLAND, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES
ARE ELEVATED, CONSISTENT WITH THE PROXIMITY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. NEAR TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE. WELL TO THE
SOUTH, POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT HAWAII.
FOR WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN, EASTERN, AND SOUTHERN CONUS, WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SIGNAL (40-50 PERCENT) OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS SLIGHTLY STRONGER SIGNAL IS
RELATED TO THE EXPECTED PRESENCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. THE SAME PHYSICAL MECHANISMS DESCRIBED IN THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY
PERIOD ALSO APPLY TO THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. A SIZABLE PORTION OF THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, GIVEN SUFFICIENT
DISTANCE FROM THE MAIN STORM TRACKS. MOST OF THE ALASKA MAINLAND AND HAWAII ARE
FAVORED TO HAVE ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING WEEK-2.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS OFFSET BY WEAK SIGNALS IN THE
PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20060625 - 19790610 - 20080613 - 19890607 - 19960605
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19790609 - 20080613 - 20060624 - 19960605 - 19780531
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 17 - 21 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON N A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 19 - 25 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA B N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE N N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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