967
FXUS01 KWBC 112001
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2025
VALID 00Z THU JUN 12 2025 - 00Z SAT JUN 14 2025
...HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
... THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
HAVE A FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...
... GENERAL HOT WEATHER CONTINUES OUT WEST AND ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK
THE MAIN THING MAKING WEATHER HEADLINES THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END
OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH A
PARTICULAR FOCUS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS, EASTERN OKLAHOMA, AND THE
OZARKS REGION. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE FUELED BY A MID-LEVEL LOW FORCING ATMOSPHERIC ASCENT NEAR THE
PROXIMITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE REGION. THERE IS A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS MUCH OF THIS
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH ISOLATED 4-6 INCH TOTALS
WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. THEREFORE, THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE. THEN, ON
SATURDAY THERE IS A BROAD MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AS MOISTURE
STREAMS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND INTERACTS WITH A FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTH TOMORROW WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND SOME SHEAR.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS TEXAS INTO
THE ARKLATEX FOR THURSDAY FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AN
ISOLATED TORNADO, AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.
ANOTHER AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST, CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES, AND WPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ISOLATED HEAVY FLOODING POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PAIRED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. MOREOVER, ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BRING A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY FROM COLORADO TO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP IN THE REGION WILL BE CAPABLE OF
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A TORNADO OR TWO. STORMS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO BECOME LINEAR AND CLUSTER FOR STRONG WIND POTENTIAL.
ON FRIDAY, A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL REPEAT AS A SHORTWAVE BRINGS
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND HAIL FROM THE PLAINS
TO THE ROCKIES.
WHILE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE IN THE FORECAST, MOST OF
THE INTERIOR WEST WILL SEE TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR EARLY JUNE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BE SEASONABLY HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE 100-110 RANGE POSSIBLE. AS FOR THE EAST COAST,
SOME WARM AIR WILL CREEP INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
TEMPERATURES COULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND APPROACH THE LOW 90S. D.C. IS LIKELY TO
SEE THE FIRST OFFICIAL 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURE OF THE YEAR. THE COOL
SPOT IN THE COUNTRY WILL BE NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE FAR
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S AND EVEN SOME UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY IN THE U.P.
OF MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN .
HAMRICK/WILDER
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