341
FXUS01 KWBC 120725
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
325 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2025
VALID 12Z THU JUN 12 2025 - 12Z SAT JUN 14 2025
...HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND MINNESOTA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
...HOT WEATHER CONTINUES OUT WEST WITH SOME MODERATION ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
THE MAIN THING MAKING WEATHER HEADLINES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH A
PARTICULAR FOCUS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION AND ALSO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE FUELED BY A MOIST LOW LEVEL JET, AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL SERVE AS
FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. THERE IS
A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION AND 3 TO 5 INCHES FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WILL BE VALID FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND SMALLER PORTIONS
OF SURROUNDING STATES ON FRIDAY, AND A MODERATE RISK FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS ON THURSDAY. SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
HERE WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR, AND THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE
TEXAS COAST TO THE GREATER MEMPHIS METRO AREA.
ANOTHER AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST, MAINLY OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES, AND WPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH INTERSECTING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PAIRED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS, SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS A MID-UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS THIS
REGION.
ANOMALOUS HEAT BY MID-JUNE STANDARDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GOVERNS THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN. THE MOST IMPACTFUL HEAT WILL
BE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHERE
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH 105 TO 110 DEGREES, AND HEAT RISK
REACHING THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR CATEGORY. THERE ARE ALSO
SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NEVADA, AND ALSO CENTRAL OREGON AND WASHINGTON ON BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY OWING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN AN
ABATEMENT OF THE ONGOING HEAT AND A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON. THE COOLEST AREAS
IN THE COUNTRY WILL BE NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S AND EVEN SOME UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY IN THE U.P.
OF MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
HAMRICK
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