341  
FXUS01 KWBC 120725  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
325 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2025  
 
VALID 12Z THU JUN 12 2025 - 12Z SAT JUN 14 2025  
 
...HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS AND MINNESOTA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...  
 
...HOT WEATHER CONTINUES OUT WEST WITH SOME MODERATION ACROSS THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...  
 
THE MAIN THING MAKING WEATHER HEADLINES THROUGH THE END OF THE  
WORK WEEK WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH A  
PARTICULAR FOCUS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION AND ALSO ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH  
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE FUELED BY A MOIST LOW LEVEL JET, AND  
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL SERVE AS  
FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. THERE IS  
A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE  
ARKLATEX REGION AND 3 TO 5 INCHES FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS  
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL WILL BE VALID FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND SMALLER PORTIONS  
OF SURROUNDING STATES ON FRIDAY, AND A MODERATE RISK FOR SOUTHEAST  
TEXAS ON THURSDAY. SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE  
HERE WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR, AND THE STORM  
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE  
TEXAS COAST TO THE GREATER MEMPHIS METRO AREA.  
 
ANOTHER AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST, MAINLY OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA  
THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES IS  
CURRENTLY FORECAST. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME  
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES, AND WPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.  
THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH INTERSECTING A  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PAIRED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE  
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH  
PLAINS, SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON  
FRIDAY FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS A MID-UPPER  
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS THIS  
REGION.  
 
ANOMALOUS HEAT BY MID-JUNE STANDARDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE  
GOVERNS THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN. THE MOST IMPACTFUL HEAT WILL  
BE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHERE  
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH 105 TO 110 DEGREES, AND HEAT RISK  
REACHING THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR CATEGORY. THERE ARE ALSO  
SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN  
NEVADA, AND ALSO CENTRAL OREGON AND WASHINGTON ON BOTH THURSDAY  
AND FRIDAY OWING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT  
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN AN  
ABATEMENT OF THE ONGOING HEAT AND A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE  
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON. THE COOLEST AREAS  
IN THE COUNTRY WILL BE NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE  
60S AND EVEN SOME UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY IN THE U.P.  
OF MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  
 
HAMRICK  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 
 
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