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FXUS06 KWBC 121902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU JUNE 12 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 18 - 22 2025
A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN IS PREDICTED ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. RIDGING IS FAVORED ACROSS THE CONUS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES, WITH THE 0Z ECENS AND 0Z CMCE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS
FEATURE COMPARED TO THE 0Z GEFS. SHORTWAVE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS LEADING TO SOME
EROSION OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE WEST. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND
DEPICTS A BROAD REGION WITH +30 METER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
CLOSER TO NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS
ARE PREDICTED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS FORECAST TO
EXPAND ACROSS ALASKA SUPPORTING ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE STATE, WITH A
+120 METER POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY IN THE MANUAL BLEND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
MAINLAND.
THE BROAD, ANOMALOUS RIDGE PREDICTED OVER MOST OF THE CONUS FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE CONUS, FURTHER SUPPORTED BY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
REFORECAST AND UNCALIBRATED MODEL GUIDANCE. THE LARGEST ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES (EXCEEDING 70 PERCENT) ARE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. ENHANCED CHANCES FOR NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR THE NORTHWEST, ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHING
FORECAST TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS DUE TO A POTENTIAL INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE FAVORING MORE CLOUD COVER AND REDUCED DAYTIME WARMING.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA, TIED TO ABOVE-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS. ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 60 PERCENT OVER MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR. ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA, THE REFORECAST TOOLS TILT WARM WHILE
THE UNCALIBRATED TOOLS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT LEAN TO
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED ACROSS THE
REGION. RELATIVELY WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) SURROUNDING THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FAVOR WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE STATE, AND IS
SUPPORTED BY THE CONSOLIDATED REFORECAST TOOL.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS TIED TO FRONTAL ACTIVITY AND ENHANCED CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION, NEAR THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE, MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS (MCSS) TYPICALLY BRING ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION TO THE MIDWEST, FURTHER ENHANCING THE PROBABILITIES.
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INCREASED ABOVE 50 PERCENT
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS TIED TO ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. INCOMING TROUGHING SUPPORTS ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
ELSEWHERE, AREAS THAT ARE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE MAIN STORM TRACKS,
INCLUDING MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST AND SOUTHEAST, ARE FAVORED TO HAVE NEAR TO
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. IN ALASKA, PRECIPITATION TOOLS VARY, BUT WITH A
GENERAL CONSENSUS OF DRIER IN THE SOUTH AND WETTER TO THE NORTH BASED ON THE
RIDGE AXIS PLACEMENT. THIS PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH THE ANALOGUE AND
TELECONNECTION TOOLS AND SUPPORTS SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW
(ABOVE)-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN (NORTHERN) PARTS OF THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
A FAIRLY STABLE MID-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN, AND GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 20 - 26 2025
A SIMILAR MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS FORECAST OVER
THE CONUS DURING WEEK-2. A BROAD RIDGE REMAINS DEPICTED TO THE EAST OF THE
ROCKIES, WITH A WEAKNESS IN HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD PERSISTING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS, ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGHING IS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN. WEAK POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES (+30 METERS) CONTINUE TO BE DEPICTED IN THE MANUAL BLEND
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. NEAR-NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. RIDGING REMAINS PREDICTED ACROSS
ALASKA, BUT WITH A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD WITH
TIME AND SOME INDICATIONS OF A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN OR WEAK TROUGHING
EMERGING ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND ALASKA LATER IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE-NORMAL
HEIGHTS REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS THE STATE FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE, BUT WITH
WEAKER AMPLITUDE POSITIVE ANOMALIES COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
REFORECAST, RAW, AND BIAS-CORRECTED TEMPERATURES GENERALLY FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE CONUS DURING WEEK-2, CONSISTENT WITH
MID-LEVEL RIDGING. THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXCEED 60 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS,
AND SOUTHEAST BASED ON STRONG SIGNALS IN THE ECENS AND GEFS REFORECAST TOOLS.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS TIED
TO A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. FOR MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA, NEAR- TO
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES REMAIN ELEVATED, CONSISTENT WITH
MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE STATE. HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES ARE REDUCED COMPARED
TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD DUE TO THE POTENTIAL BREAKDOWN OF THIS RIDGE LATER IN
THE PERIOD. UNCALIBRATED TOOLS SUPPORT ENHANCED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO FAVOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT HAWAII.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN,
EAST-CENTRAL, AND SOUTHERN CONUS DURING WEEK-2, WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SIGNAL
(40-50 PERCENT) OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF TEXAS, EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO,
AND SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. THIS STRONGER SIGNAL IS RELATED TO THE EXPECTED
INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OR OVER THE
EAST PACIFIC. THE SAME PHYSICAL MECHANISMS DESCRIBED IN THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY
PERIOD ALSO APPLY TO THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, WITH A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
REGIME DOMINATING MUCH OF THE EAST AND WEAK TROUGHING LEADING TO ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE INCREASED OVER AREAS FURTHER DISPLACED FROM THE MEAN STORM TRACKS
INCLUDING MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS, AND ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE ALASKA MAINLAND AND HAWAII ARE FAVORED TO HAVE
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING WEEK-2.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS OFFSET BY WEAK SIGNALS IN THE
PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20060626 - 19790610 - 19790624 - 19960605 - 20080613
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19790610 - 20060625 - 19790624 - 19780601 - 19960605
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 18 - 22 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 20 - 26 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO B B NEVADA N B
W MONTANA B B E MONTANA N N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A N
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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