383  
FXUS01 KWBC 132054  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
453 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2025  
 
VALID 00Z SAT JUN 14 2025 - 00Z MON JUN 16 2025  
 
...HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  
EAST-CENTRAL U.S. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...  
 
...HEATWAVE EXPECTED FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS REACHING  
THE 110S BY THIS WEEKEND...  
 
THE MAIN THING MAKING WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE  
THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE  
ROCKIES TO THE EAST COAST. A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED WEST TO EAST  
FROM THE PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL HAVE  
MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT THAT INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND  
UNSTABLE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY  
DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,  
INCLUDING MOST OF VIRGINIA, IN PARTICULAR WILL BE A FOCUS FOR  
FLOODING POTENTIAL. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HAVE SLIGHT RISK AREAS FOR  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE AS  
THUNDERSTORMS CONCENTRATED NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD DROP A  
COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN ON EITHER DAY IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.  
THE CENTRAL PLAINS COULD ALSO SEE A TARGETED SLIGHT FOR EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE GENERATES A  
POSSIBLE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN.  
THE PLAINS REMAIN IN A SIMILAR PATTERN ON SUNDAY WITH ANY  
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  
 
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A HAZARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, HIGH  
PLAINS, AND SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER  
EXTENDS FROM MONTANA TO NEBRASKA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SEVERE  
WEATHER HAZARDS INCLUDE POTENTIAL LARGE HAIL WITH SUPERCELLS AND  
DAMAGING WINDS FROM ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS. THE SEVERE WEATHER  
IS A RESULT OF STRONG UPPER LEVELS WINDS, AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN AT  
THE SURFACE, AND A UPPER TROUGH PARKED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST  
THAT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD. MOREOVER, THE SOUTHERN  
MID-ATLANTIC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG STORMS ON SUNDAY AS  
STORMS ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG  
WINDS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF DAY TIME HEATING AND OUTFLOW  
BOUNDARIES.  
 
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE WARM AND DRY FOR THE WEEKEND ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOVERNS  
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN. THE MOST IMPACTFUL HEAT WILL BE  
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHERE  
AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE 110S OVER THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE, AN  
EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN  
ARIZONA AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS THE HEATWAVE  
BUILDS. THERE ARE ALSO SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEVADA, AND ALSO CENTRAL OREGON AND WASHINGTON  
ON FRIDAY OWING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT  
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN AN  
ABATEMENT OF THE ONGOING HEAT AND A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE  
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON. THE COOLEST AREAS  
IN THE COUNTRY WILL BE NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE  
GREAT LAKES AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST, WITH REFRESHINGLY COOL  
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND 60S. SOUTH OF THE  
FRONT, A SUMMERY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW  
90S/ UPPER 80S AND LOWS AS WARM AS THE MIDDLE 70S.  
 
HAMRICK/WILDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 

 
 
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