383
FXUS01 KWBC 132054
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
453 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2025
VALID 00Z SAT JUN 14 2025 - 00Z MON JUN 16 2025
...HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL U.S. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
...HEATWAVE EXPECTED FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE 110S BY THIS WEEKEND...
THE MAIN THING MAKING WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE
THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE EAST COAST. A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED WEST TO EAST
FROM THE PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL HAVE
MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT THAT INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
INCLUDING MOST OF VIRGINIA, IN PARTICULAR WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
FLOODING POTENTIAL. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HAVE SLIGHT RISK AREAS FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE AS
THUNDERSTORMS CONCENTRATED NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD DROP A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN ON EITHER DAY IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.
THE CENTRAL PLAINS COULD ALSO SEE A TARGETED SLIGHT FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE GENERATES A
POSSIBLE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN.
THE PLAINS REMAIN IN A SIMILAR PATTERN ON SUNDAY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A HAZARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, HIGH
PLAINS, AND SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
EXTENDS FROM MONTANA TO NEBRASKA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SEVERE
WEATHER HAZARDS INCLUDE POTENTIAL LARGE HAIL WITH SUPERCELLS AND
DAMAGING WINDS FROM ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS. THE SEVERE WEATHER
IS A RESULT OF STRONG UPPER LEVELS WINDS, AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN AT
THE SURFACE, AND A UPPER TROUGH PARKED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THAT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD. MOREOVER, THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG STORMS ON SUNDAY AS
STORMS ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG
WINDS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF DAY TIME HEATING AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE WARM AND DRY FOR THE WEEKEND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOVERNS
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN. THE MOST IMPACTFUL HEAT WILL BE
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHERE
AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE 110S OVER THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE, AN
EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS THE HEATWAVE
BUILDS. THERE ARE ALSO SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEVADA, AND ALSO CENTRAL OREGON AND WASHINGTON
ON FRIDAY OWING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN AN
ABATEMENT OF THE ONGOING HEAT AND A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON. THE COOLEST AREAS
IN THE COUNTRY WILL BE NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST, WITH REFRESHINGLY COOL
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND 60S. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT, A SUMMERY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S/ UPPER 80S AND LOWS AS WARM AS THE MIDDLE 70S.
HAMRICK/WILDER
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