601
FXUS01 KWBC 142004
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
403 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2025
VALID 00Z SUN JUN 15 2025 - 00Z TUE JUN 17 2025
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY
AND THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY/MONDAY...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUTH OF AND
ALONG THE BOUNDARY, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES/NEW ENGLAND TO THE GULF COAST AND FROM NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY. TWO
REGIONS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER MASS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST AREA WILL BE OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL
STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
THE SECOND AREA WILL COVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,
ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
IN ADDITION, THE UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL CREATE
SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. HOWEVER, THERE
IS AN INCREASED RISK OF HAIL, TWO INCHES OR GREATER, OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
LIKEWISE, ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL
CREATE SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND TO THE GULF COAST AND FROM THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES, WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST. SIMILARLY,
THERE WILL BE TWO REGIONS OF HEAVY RAIN EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER
MASS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST AREA WILL BE OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS,
AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
THE SECOND AREA WILL BE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND A LARGER AREA OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS,
AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A LARGER AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
FEW TORNADOES. HOWEVER, THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF HAIL, TWO
INCHES OR GREATER, AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS 65 KNOTS OR
GREATER OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
BY MONDAY, THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TAPERS OFF TO A FEW
MARGINAL RISK AREAS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC, NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/TENNESSEE
VALLEY.
MOREOVER, THE MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL TRIGGER SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND
UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON MONDAY. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND
A FEW TORNADOES.
ZIEGENFELDER
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