735  
FXUS01 KWBC 150658  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
258 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2025  
 
VALID 12Z SUN JUN 15 2025 - 12Z TUE JUN 17 2025  
 
...A FLASH FLOOD THREAT REMAINS OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC  
SUNDAY, THE CENTRAL & SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO MISSOURI & ARKANSAS  
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AND THE CORN BELT ON TUESDAY...  
 
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE  
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS & MIDWEST INTO TUESDAY...  
 
...SIGNIFICANT HEAT REMAINS AN ISSUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN  
ROCKIES & DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY & MONDAY...  
 
THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN FEATURES BUILDING RIDGING ACROSS NEW  
MEXICO ON SUNDAY WHICH TEMPORARILY ERODES BY TUESDAY AS  
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN  
PACIFIC PLOWS INTO THE INTERIOR, FORCING SYSTEM  
PROGRESSION/INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS A BROADENING PORTION OF  
THE LOWER 48. DOWNSTREAM, A WEAKNESS/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS  
FROM PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THOUGH IT WEAKENS WITH TIME. RIDGING SLOWLY  
BUILDS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE EAST COAST INTO THE ADJACENT WESTERN  
ATLANTIC.  
 
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY WEAKENING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY  
TO THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST, THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THE  
VIRGINIAS AND NORTH CAROLINA NEAR A WAVERING FRONT WILL WANE FROM  
SUNDAY TO MONDAY. THE GREATEST RISK LIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST  
VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA ON SUNDAY, WHERE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS  
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER INCREASINGLY  
SATURATED SOILS. THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST AND EASTWARD  
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN A  
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY  
FRONT INTO TUESDAY.  
 
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST, DISTURBANCES MOVING  
THROUGH ALOFT CAUSE BOTH FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS  
TO REMAIN THREATS THROUGH TUESDAY, THOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER IS  
THE GREATER HAZARD IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY & MONDAY BEFORE  
SINKING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. FOR AREAS OF THE CORN  
BELT, BOTH THE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOOD RISKS ARE COMPARABLE  
ON SUNDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TAKING  
PRECEDENCE ON MONDAY. THE GREATEST FLASH FLOOD RISK SHIFTS FROM  
PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS SUNDAY AND INTO THE  
CORN BELT ON TUESDAY AS DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE INCREASINGLY ZONAL  
FLOW PATTERN TAP ENOUGH MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, AND WIND SHEAR TO  
ORGANIZE CONVECTION FARTHER TO THE NORTH.  
 
RIDGING ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST KEEPS THE  
REGION HOT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH DAILY RECORD HIGHS BEING  
APPROACHED IF NOT EXCEEDED IN A FEW LOCATIONS. HEAT ADVISORIES  
AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM NEAR EL PASO  
WESTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WHERE THE PROBABILITIES OF  
HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 100F+ ARE GREATEST. FOR THE DESERTS, HIGH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 110S -- WITH DEATH VALLEY THREATENING 120F --  
ARE ANTICIPATED. STAYING HYDRATED, LIMITING OUTDOOR EXPOSURE AND  
WEARING LIGHT-COLORED CLOTHING WHEN YOU DO, AND STAYING IN AIR  
CONDITIONED PLACES REMAIN THE BEST WAYS TO SURVIVE THE HEAT. ON  
TUESDAY, A FRONT DEVELOPING AS IT DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN  
SHOULD ALLOW FOR LESS EXTREME HEAT, THOUGH FOR JUST ONE DAY.  
 
ROTH  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 

 
 
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