903  
FXUS01 KWBC 152001  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
401 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2025  
 
VALID 00Z MON JUN 16 2025 - 00Z WED JUN 18 2025  
 
..THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE  
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE  
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS/MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND  
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS /UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY  
AND THE MID-ATLANTIC/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND OHIO/TENNESSEE  
VALLEYS ON MONDAY...  
 
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY...  
 
...THERE IS A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER OVER PARTS OF THE  
GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY...  
 
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE  
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER-LEVEL  
ENERGY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC, OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO THE  
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY. THREE  
HEAVY RAIN REGIONS WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER MASS OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST AREA WILL BE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC.  
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY  
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE NUMEROUS AREAS  
WHERE FLASH FLOODING EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE, AND MANY STREAMS MAY  
FLOOD, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING LARGER RIVERS.  
 
THE SECOND AREA WILL COVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS  
AND THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS  
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS  
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL  
CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,  
ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.  
 
THE THIRD AREA WILL COVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND  
THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED  
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE  
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE  
MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS,  
SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.  
 
IN ADDITION, THE UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL CREATE  
SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE  
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN  
ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE  
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT  
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW  
TORNADOES. HOWEVER, THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF HAIL, TWO INCHES  
OR GREATER, AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS 65 KNOTS OR GREATER  
OVER THE REGION.  
 
ON MONDAY, AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE  
WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS  
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS  
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS  
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC FROM MONDAY THROUGH  
TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY  
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL  
STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.  
THE SECOND AREA WILL COVER PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND  
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A  
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE  
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM  
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL  
CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,  
ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.  
 
HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS  
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/UPPER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. HOWEVER, THERE  
IS AN INCREASED RISK OF HAIL, TWO INCHES OR GREATER, OVER PARTS OF  
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NORTHERN PLAINS.  
 
THERE WILL BE A SECOND AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK  
(LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.  
ELSEWHERE, DRY FUELS, LOW HUMIDITY, AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE PROMPTED  
A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT  
BASIN/SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.  
 
BY TUESDAY, THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER PARTS  
OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A  
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE  
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN  
WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN  
AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST  
VULNERABLE.  
 
A SECOND AREA OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE  
OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIAN ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS  
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS  
OF THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIAN. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN  
WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN  
AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST  
VULNERABLE.  
 
MOREOVER, THERE WILL BE A THIRD DAY OF ENHANCED RISK OF SHOWERS  
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  
THEREFORE, ON TUESDAY, THE SPC ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5)  
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE  
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT  
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW  
TORNADOES.  
 
ZIEGENFELDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 

 
 
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