355  
FXUS01 KWBC 162041  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
440 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2025  
 
VALID 00Z TUE JUN 17 2025 - 00Z THU JUN 19 2025  
 
...FLASH FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS  
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, DIMINISHES ACROSS THE  
MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS/KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT, BUT INCREASES  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY...  
 
...EPISODES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE  
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, SPREADING INTO THE  
MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY...  
 
...FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT BASIN, ACROSS THE  
FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE NEXT  
COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT HEAT IN THE SOUTHWEST...  
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTERACTING WITH A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE  
MOST ACTIVE WEATHER INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE NEXT  
COUPLE OF DAYS. EPISODES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED  
TO IMPACT AREAS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, ACROSS NEBRASKA AND  
INTO MINNESOTA THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY. LATER TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TIME  
PERIOD WHEN MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ERUPT ACROSS KANSAS  
WHEN A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP. THE LOW  
PRESSURE WAVE IS THEN FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND TRACK NORTHEAST  
INTO THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE THREAT OF SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT  
LAKES. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, A HEAVY  
RAIN/FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS EXPECTED FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL  
PLAINS TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE  
HEAVY RAIN THREAT MAY LESSEN A BIT ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE MIDWEST  
TO THE GREAT LAKES BUT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD  
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATER ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE MIDWEST AHEAD OF  
THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  
 
MEANWHILE, THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THREATS ARE EXPECTED  
TO LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS  
A WARM FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY  
SHOULD SEE THESE RISKS DIMINISH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST  
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY, SOUTHERN  
MID-ATLANTIC AND THE DEEP SOUTH, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  
THE RULE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO INSTABILITY AND  
THE APPROACH OF AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  
 
AS A PROGRESSIVE, KICKER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE WEST, A  
FIRE WEATHER RISK CURRENTLY EMERGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL  
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARIZONA, THE FOUR  
CORNERS, AND INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE  
OF DAYS UNDER A DRY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND THAT BECOMES GUSTY  
BEHIND COLD FRONTAL IMPULSES. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR  
A LARGE PORTION WITHIN THESE AREAS.  
 
SIGNIFICANT HEAT TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNDERNEATH AN  
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY BEFORE  
REBOUNDING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE  
REESTABLISHES FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF UPPER TROUGHING INTO THE  
CENTRAL U.S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 110S FOR THE  
HOTTEST LOCATIONS IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE  
OF DAYS WHERE EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT. MEANWHILE,  
HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW  
MEXICO, SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS WHERE HIGH  
TEMPERATURES FROM THE 90S TO WELL UP INTO THE 100S ARE FORECAST  
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS.  
 
KONG  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 
 
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