040  
FXUS01 KWBC 170631  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
230 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025  
 
VALID 12Z TUE JUN 17 2025 - 12Z THU JUN 19 2025  
 
...FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, CENTRAL  
PLAINS, AND THE MIDWEST TUESDAY & TUESDAY NIGHT...  
 
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR THE CENTRAL U.S. TUESDAY, MIDWEST  
& LOWER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY, & THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES  
THURSDAY...  
 
...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST & ROCKIES  
THROUGH THURSDAY...SIGNIFICANT HEAT IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS  
WEEK...HEAT BUILDS IN THE EAST...  
 
THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE A PROGRESSIVE  
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT CROSSING AT A MODEST PACE  
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EAST. FROM TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY  
WILL BE THE TIME PERIOD WHEN MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS COULD  
ERUPT IN AND NEAR THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHEN A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE  
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP. THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE IS THEN FORECAST TO  
INTENSIFY AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY WHEN  
THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND  
EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND  
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER  
THREAT, A HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS EXPECTED FROM  
PORTIONS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY  
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT MAY LESSEN A BIT ON  
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES BUT STRONG TO  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS  
THE MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE INTENSIFYING  
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY, SOUTHERN  
MID-ATLANTIC AND THE DEEP SOUTH, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  
THE RULE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO INSTABILITY DUE TO  
A PAIR OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT. ONCE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT  
NEARS THE EAST ON THURSDAY, SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE  
WITHIN THE INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.  
 
AS THE INITIAL PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH  
THE WEST, A FIRE WEATHER RISK SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
ARIZONA, THE FOUR CORNERS, AND INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ROCKIES  
TUESDAY UNDER A DRY, GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND. RED FLAG  
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PORTION WITHIN THESE AREAS. ON  
WEDNESDAY, AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT MATERIALIZES ACROSS  
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AS A SECOND DISTURBANCE ALOFT  
AND ATTENDANT FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC WHICH THEN SHIFTS  
INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT HEAT EXPANDS ACROSS  
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE REESTABLISHES  
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 110F+ FOR THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS IN THE  
DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHERE EXTREME  
HEAT WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT. MEANWHILE, HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN  
IN EFFECT ACROSS IN AND NEAR WESTERN TEXAS WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES  
APPROACHING AND EXCEEDING 100F ARE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY. THE BUILDING HEAT ON THURSDAY BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR  
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO A COUPLE LOCATIONS IN AND NEAR THE  
GREAT BASIN. THE APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC STATES, AND NEW  
ENGLAND STATES WILL SEE INCREASING HEAT AS WARM CORE RIDGING  
BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF  
THE AREA. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOW 90S...ARE  
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY.  
 
ROTH/KONG  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 

 
 
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