912  
FXUS01 KWBC 171921  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
320 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025  
 
VALID 00Z WED JUN 18 2025 - 00Z FRI JUN 20 2025  
 
...FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, CENTRAL  
PLAINS, AND THE MIDWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...  
 
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISKS FOR THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO TONIGHT,  
MIDWEST & LOWER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY, & THE MID-ATLANTIC  
STATES THURSDAY...  
 
...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST & ROCKIES  
THROUGH THURSDAY...SIGNIFICANT HEAT IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS  
WEEK...HEAT BUILDS IN THE EAST...  
 
THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE A PROGRESSIVE  
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE PLAINS  
AND THE EAST. FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH EARLY  
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TIME PERIOD WHEN MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS  
BRING THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE  
VICINITY OF A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. IN ADDITION TO THE  
SEVERE THREAT, FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR PARTS OF  
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL  
APPALACHIANS. THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND  
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY, SO THE THREAT OF  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER  
GREAT LAKES AS A RESULT. FORTUNATELY, THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD  
LESSEN A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE  
OF THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP HEAVIER  
RAINFALL TOTALS IN CHECK. ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY, SOUTHERN  
MID-ATLANTIC AND THE DEEP SOUTH, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  
THE RULE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO INCREASING INSTABILITY.  
ONCE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT NEARS THE EAST ON THURSDAY, MORE  
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE  
INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.  
 
AS THE INITIAL PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH  
THE WEST, A FIRE WEATHER RISK SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
ARIZONA, THE FOUR CORNERS, AND INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS  
AFTERNOON UNDER A DRY, GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND. RED FLAG  
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THOSE AREAS. ON  
WEDNESDAY, AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT MATERIALIZES ACROSS  
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AS A SECOND DISTURBANCE ALOFT  
AND ATTENDANT FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC WHICH THEN SHIFTS  
INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT HEAT EXPANDS ACROSS  
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE REESTABLISHES  
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 110F+ FOR THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS IN THE  
DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHERE EXTREME  
HEAT WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT. MEANWHILE, HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN  
IN EFFECT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES  
APPROACHING AND EXCEEDING 100F ARE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY. THE BUILDING HEAT ON THURSDAY BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR  
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO A COUPLE LOCATIONS IN AND NEAR THE  
GREAT BASIN. THE APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC STATES, AND NEW  
ENGLAND STATES WILL SEE INCREASING HEAT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS  
NORTH OF THE AREA. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOW  
90S...ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY.  
 
MILLER/ROTH/KONG  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab HPC Page
Main Text Page