940
FXUS01 KWBC 181951
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
350 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
VALID 00Z THU JUN 19 2025 - 00Z SAT JUN 21 2025
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN THE MIDWEST, LOWER GREAT LAKES,
AND MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY MUCH OF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THURSDAY...
...HEAT BUILDS IN THE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING OFF ON
FRIDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND/OR SIGNIFICANT HEAT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WEST, ROCKIES, & CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT THAT BRINGS THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING TO MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AN INTENSIFYING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST ALONG AN EASTWARD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AND
FLASH FLOODING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. THE HIGHEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LIES FROM
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF ILLINOIS, INDIANA,
WESTERN OHIO, AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY, WHERE A LARGE COMPLEX OF
STORMS CAN BRING STRONG, DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
THE APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC STATES, AND NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL
SEE HEAT INCREASINGLY BUILD THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID
90S...ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. ONCE THE
COLD FRONT NEARS THE EAST ON THURSDAY, MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID
AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND THE MID-ATLANTIC. A WANING AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED WITH TIME AS A COLD FRONT LEADS TO
COOLING AND DRIES THINGS OUT, CLEARING THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY AND
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES BY FRIDAY. THE GULF COAST
AND SOUTHEAST MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
ACROSS THE WEST, A DEEP LAYER CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC, WITH THE CENTER MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. IT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT EAST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MONTANA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS BRINGS AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (WHERE RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT),
WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (RED FLAG
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NEVADA AND UTAH WITH FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF WESTERN COLORADO AND
NORTHERN ARIZONA). SIGNIFICANT HEAT EXPANDS ACROSS THE WEST INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS
THE RIDGE REBUILDS AHEAD OF THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE. THE BUILDING
ANOMALOUS HEAT WILL THREATEN DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY
AND FROM COLORADO NORTH AND EAST INTO NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA ON
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 100F+ FOR THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK (DEATH VALLEY
COULD EXCEED 120F) WHERE EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT.
HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FRINGES
OF THE BIG BEND OF WESTERN TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE
HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 100-110F ARE FORECAST.
MILLER/ROTH
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page