940  
FXUS01 KWBC 181951  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
350 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2025  
 
VALID 00Z THU JUN 19 2025 - 00Z SAT JUN 21 2025  
 
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN THE MIDWEST, LOWER GREAT LAKES,  
AND MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY MUCH OF THE  
EASTERN SEABOARD THURSDAY...  
 
...HEAT BUILDS IN THE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING OFF ON  
FRIDAY...  
 
...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND/OR SIGNIFICANT HEAT FOR PORTIONS OF  
THE WEST, ROCKIES, & CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY...  
 
THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER  
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT THAT BRINGS THE THREAT OF SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING TO MUCH OF THE EASTERN  
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AN INTENSIFYING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE  
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST ALONG AN EASTWARD ADVANCING  
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS  
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AND  
FLASH FLOODING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY  
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH  
THE EVENING HOURS. THE HIGHEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LIES FROM  
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF ILLINOIS, INDIANA,  
WESTERN OHIO, AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY, WHERE A LARGE COMPLEX OF  
STORMS CAN BRING STRONG, DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  
THE APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC STATES, AND NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL  
SEE HEAT INCREASINGLY BUILD THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS  
NORTH OF THE AREA. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID  
90S...ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. ONCE THE  
COLD FRONT NEARS THE EAST ON THURSDAY, MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE  
WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID  
AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, PARTICULARLY ACROSS  
THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND THE MID-ATLANTIC. A WANING AREA OF  
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED WITH TIME AS A COLD FRONT LEADS TO  
COOLING AND DRIES THINGS OUT, CLEARING THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY AND  
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES BY FRIDAY. THE GULF COAST  
AND SOUTHEAST MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.  
 
ACROSS THE WEST, A DEEP LAYER CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF  
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC, WITH THE CENTER MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. IT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT EAST AND SOUTH  
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MONTANA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE  
COMBINATION OF WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS BRINGS AN ELEVATED FIRE  
WEATHER THREAT ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (WHERE RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT),  
WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (RED FLAG  
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NEVADA AND UTAH WITH FIRE  
WEATHER WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF WESTERN COLORADO AND  
NORTHERN ARIZONA). SIGNIFICANT HEAT EXPANDS ACROSS THE WEST INTO  
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS  
THE RIDGE REBUILDS AHEAD OF THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE. THE BUILDING  
ANOMALOUS HEAT WILL THREATEN DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY  
AND FROM COLORADO NORTH AND EAST INTO NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA ON  
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 100F+ FOR THE DESERT  
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK (DEATH VALLEY  
COULD EXCEED 120F) WHERE EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT.  
HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FRINGES  
OF THE BIG BEND OF WESTERN TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE  
HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 100-110F ARE FORECAST.  
 
MILLER/ROTH  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 
 
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