710
FXUS07 KWBC 191230
PMD30D
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JULY 2025
THE JULY 2025 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE PRIMARILY BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE [BOTH WEEK 3-4 AND INTEGRATED MONTHLY
(NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME), COPERNICUS MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE
SYSTEM (C3S))], STATISTICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE, AND CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS.
ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE COHERENT SUBSEASONAL TROPICAL VARIABILITY
IN THE FORM OF ATMOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE ACTIVITY, THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION
(MJO) HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM ITS STATE IN LATE MAY AND EARLY JUNE.
MOREOVER, FORECASTS OF THE MJO OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS DO NOT PREDICT ANY
CLEAR, RELIABLE STRENGTHENING OF THE SIGNAL AND SO THE MJO DOES NOT PLAY A ROLE
IN PREPARATION OF THE JULY OUTLOOKS. CURRENT LAND SURFACE STATES SUCH AS
ANOMALOUS SOIL MOISTURE DID CONTRIBUTE CONSIDERABLY TO THE OUTLOOKS FOR THE
UPCOMING MONTH.
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. AS WELL AS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED ALONG THE GULF COAST, INCLUDING ALL OF FLORIDA,
AND FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA. PROBABILITIES ARE GREATEST FOR THE WESTERN U.S. WHERE
WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE OVERWHELMINGLY FAVORED BY BOTH DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, LONG-TERM POSITIVE TEMPERATURE TRENDS, AND DRIER
THAN NORMAL SURFACE CONDITIONS IN MANY AREAS. THE ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
NORTHEAST ARE LOWER DUE TO SOMEWHAT LESS AGREEMENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND
VARYING SURFACE CONDITIONS.
WARMER THAN NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND SOME FORECAST TOOLS
FAVOR A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE GULF COAST AND
FLORIDA.
OCEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL WEAK RIDGING IN DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE ELEVATES ODDS SLIGHTLY FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
PROXIMITY TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA. ALTERNATIVELY, FORECAST TROUGHING DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF JULY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL SSTS IN THE BERING SEA FAVORS AN AREA
OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR A SMALL REGION IN SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ALASKA.
A LARGE AREA OF QUITE WETTER THAN NORMAL SURFACE CONDITIONS FROM FREQUENT AND
HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENTS THIS LATE WINTER AND SPRING WERE OBSERVED FROM THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THIS IS LIKELY TO
OFFSET, TO SOME DEGREE, PERIODS OF WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS DURING JULY
AND INTERJECT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE EVENTUAL JULY MONTHLY MEAN
TEMPERATURES. SO A FORECAST FOR "EQUAL-CHANCES" (EC) OF EITHER OF THE THREE
CATEGORIES IS FORECAST FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH, TENNESSEE
VALLEY, LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CAROLINAS.
FOR PRECIPITATION, BOTH DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, LONG-TERM
NEGATIVE PRECIPITATION TRENDS, IN SOME AREAS, AND DRIER THAN NORMAL SURFACE
CONDITIONS SUPPORT ELEVATED ODDS FOR BELOW-NORMAL JULY MONTHLY TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR DRIER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS IS FOR PARTS OF MONTANA, IDAHO AND WYOMING.
FORECAST TROUGHING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF JULY CENTERED IN THE BERING SEA
SUPPORTS ELEVATED ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA. THE MAJORITY OF NMME AND C3S MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS WET SIGNAL.
LONG-TERM POSITIVE PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND NMME AND C3S MONTHLY DYNAMICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHEAST, OHIO VALLEY,
MID-ATLANTIC AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. PROBABILITIES ARE MODEST OVERALL FOR
THIS REGION.
LARGE VARIABILITY FROM BOTH DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND QUITE
UNUSUAL LATE SPRING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CONDITIONS, MAKES THE
FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON REGION HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. GIVEN THIS, THE
MOST APPROPRIATE FORECAST IN THIS AREA FOR JULY 2025 IS EC AS EITHER OF THE
THREE CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY GIVEN THE ABOVE INFORMATION AT THIS POINT
IN MID-JUNE.
FORECASTER: JON GOTTSCHALCK
THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1991 AND 2020, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.
AN UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR JUL WILL BE ISSUED ON MON JUNE 30 2025
THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page