492
FXUS06 KWBC 191901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU JUNE 19 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 25 - 29 2025
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS. THE RESULTANT MANUAL
BLEND FEATURES A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH WIDESPREAD RIDGING OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND CHUKCHI SEA AND WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE BERING SEA. DYNAMICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS DEVELOPING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. RIDGING AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAIN FORECAST OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). MODEL SOLUTIONS DE-AMPLIFY THIS
PATTERN FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
DOING SO FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRANSITION.
HOWEVER, MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE DURING WEEK-2 AFTER THIS PREDICTED TRANSITION,
MAKING FOR LESS FORECAST CERTAINTY LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS A RESULT OF CONTINUED WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST AND INCREASED
CLOUDINESS DUE TO INFLUXES OF TROPICAL MOISTURE, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 50% FOR
PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHERE THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER IS
LIKELY TO BE GREATEST. AS 500-HPA HEIGHTS INCREASE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DURING THE PERIOD, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES EXPAND RELATIVE TO
YESTERDAY TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE WEST AWAY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AND DESERT
SOUTHWEST. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGLY FAVORED EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI, WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 80% FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY,
APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST U.S. WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGING FORECAST
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
MOST LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. UNDER PREDICTED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN ALASKA, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA,
CONSISTENT WITH MODEL DEPICTIONS OF STRENGTHENING TROUGHING OVER THE BERING
SEA. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII, WITH POSITIVE
SURROUNDING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES.
A STREAM OF TROPICAL TO SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
AND GREAT LAKES DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUMES FROM THE
GULF AND EASTERN PACIFIC CONVERGE AND BRING ENHANCED CHANCES (>50%) FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. THIS MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTHWARD AROUND THE MID-LEVEL AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EAST. THIS MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
PLAINS, MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BRING STRONG CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. IN THE SOUTHEAST, NORMAL SUMMERTIME
CONVECTION BRINGS NEAR TO A SLIGHT LEAN TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION. NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN THE GREAT
BASIN AND CALIFORNIA BEHIND THE MAIN AXIS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE
SOUTHWEST. OVER ALASKA, WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND AS THE
UPPER-AIR PATTERN SWITCHES FROM RIDGING TO TROUGHING OVER THE COURSE OF THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD, THE ODDS TILT WEAKLY TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
MOST OF THE STATE, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES (>40%) FOR SOUTHERN
ALASKA RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE STRONGEST TOWARDS THE WEST WITH LOWER CHANCES
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND, CONSISTENT WITH THE HAWAII CON AND
AUTOBLEND.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL TOOLS IS OFFSET BY DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 27 - JUL 03, 2025
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A CONTINUED
DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN THAT BEGAN DURING THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. BOTH THE TROUGHING
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ARE
WEAKER IN WEEK-2, RESULTING IN CLOSE TO ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA. POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WEAK TROUGHING IS FAVORED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE BERING SEA, WHILE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC REMAINS FIRMLY IN
PLACE.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, UNDER CONTINUED RIDGING AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. PROBABILITIES ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD LIKELY
DUE TO DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE EAST COAST RIDGE BUT STILL EXCEED 60% FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WEAKER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LEADS TO
A QUICK EROSION OF THE WIDESPREAD BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED IN THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. IN WEEK-2, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ONLY WEAKLY FAVORED FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BECOME MOST LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWESTERN CONUS. IN
ALASKA, A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINS FOR THE NORTH
SLOPE UNDER CONTINUED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORED (>40%) FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE AS THE WEAK TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA MOVES SLIGHTLY
CLOSER TO THE WESTERN COAST. HAWAII CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, SUPPORTED BY THE HAWAII CON.
ODDS TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE CONUS DUE TO
CONTINUED AVAILABILITY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE GULF REGION AS WELL
AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED FOR PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST, AS WELL
AS FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHERE
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE WEATHER. A WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA TILTS ALL OF ALASKA TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ALSO CONTINUES TO BE WEAKLY FAVORED
FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL
TOOLS IS OFFSET BY DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 17.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19780610 - 20000604 - 20010629 - 20010620 - 20060619
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20010620 - 20010630 - 19780609 - 20000603 - 19940612
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 25 - 29 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH N N ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE N A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 27 - JUL 03, 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A
UTAH A N ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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