605
FXUS01 KWBC 191914
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
313 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
VALID 00Z FRI JUN 20 2025 - 00Z SUN JUN 22 2025
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY...
...THERE IS A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER OVER PARTS OF THE
GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY FRIDAY. THE
EASTWARD-MOVING BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH
URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST
VULNERABLE.
FURTHERMORE, THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING
AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
IN ADDITION, THE BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES.
A SECOND FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WESTWARD TO
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION FLUCTUATES OVER THE AREA,
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY EVENING.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
ON FRIDAY, THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5)
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE AN ADDED THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 65 KNOTS OR GREATER AND HAIL TWO INCHES
OR GREATER FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BY
SATURDAY, THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A MARGINAL
RISK FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST.
IN ADDITION, ON THURSDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWARD TO
THE GULF COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE ENERGY WILL PRODUCE RAIN AND SNOW AT
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OVER THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. FURTHER, RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY MORNING AND
WET SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY NIGHT,
PROMPTING A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER PARTS OF GLACIER NATIONAL PARK
BY SATURDAY.
ELSEWHERE, DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE 90S TO 100 F AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. THE DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING INTO THE STRONG FLOW
ALOFT, COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT, WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF 20-25 MPH SUSTAINED
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS (WITH HIGHER GUSTS) HAVE PROMPTED A
CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT
BASIN/SOUTHWEST THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
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HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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