605  
FXUS01 KWBC 191914  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
313 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2025  
 
VALID 00Z FRI JUN 20 2025 - 00Z SUN JUN 22 2025  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE  
MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...  
 
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY...  
 
...THERE IS A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER OVER PARTS OF THE  
GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST...  
 
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE TENNESSEE  
VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY FRIDAY. THE  
EASTWARD-MOVING BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS  
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS  
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY  
RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH  
URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST  
VULNERABLE.  
 
FURTHERMORE, THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH  
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS  
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS  
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE  
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH  
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING  
AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.  
 
IN ADDITION, THE BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST.  
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  
THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT  
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW  
TORNADOES.  
 
A SECOND FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WESTWARD TO  
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION FLUCTUATES OVER THE AREA,  
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY EVENING.  
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND  
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.  
 
ON FRIDAY, THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT  
LAKES. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5)  
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE  
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT  
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW  
TORNADOES. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE AN ADDED THREAT OF SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 65 KNOTS OR GREATER AND HAIL TWO INCHES  
OR GREATER FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BY  
SATURDAY, THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A MARGINAL  
RISK FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST.  
 
IN ADDITION, ON THURSDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP  
OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWARD TO  
THE GULF COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS  
OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM  
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE ENERGY WILL PRODUCE RAIN AND SNOW AT  
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OVER THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO  
SATURDAY. FURTHER, RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN  
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY MORNING AND  
WET SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY NIGHT,  
PROMPTING A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER PARTS OF GLACIER NATIONAL PARK  
BY SATURDAY.  
 
ELSEWHERE, DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT  
BASIN DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING  
INTO THE 90S TO 100 F AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING INTO THE  
SINGLE DIGITS. THE DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING INTO THE STRONG FLOW  
ALOFT, COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT, WILL  
CONTRIBUTE TO AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF 20-25 MPH SUSTAINED  
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS (WITH HIGHER GUSTS) HAVE PROMPTED A  
CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT  
BASIN/SOUTHWEST THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.  
 
ZIEGENFELDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 
 
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