289
FXUS06 KWBC 201902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI JUNE 20 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 26 - 30 2025
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS. THE RESULTANT MANUAL
BLEND FEATURES A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH WIDESPREAD RIDGING OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND BEAUFORT SEA AND WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE BERING SEA.
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS DEVELOPING IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH WEAKLY NEGATIVE ANOMALIES FORECAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WEST. RIDGING AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAIN FORECAST OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). MODEL SOLUTIONS DE-AMPLIFY THIS PATTERN
FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY DOING SO
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRANSITION.
AS A RESULT OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS DUE TO INFLUXES OF TROPICAL MOISTURE,
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXCEED 40% FOR PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHERE THE COOLING
INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO BE GREATEST. AS 500-HPA HEIGHTS INCREASE
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE PERIOD, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES
CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AWAY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AND
DESERT SOUTHWEST. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGLY FAVORED EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI, WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 80% FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC DUE TO AMPLIFIED RIDGING FORECAST OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE WEAKLY FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE
PLAINS BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. UNDER PREDICTED
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LIKELY
OVER NORTHEASTERN ALASKA, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE
ALEUTIANS AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH MODEL DEPICTIONS OF
STRENGTHENING TROUGHING OVER THE BERING SEA. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR HAWAII, WITH POSITIVE SURROUNDING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES.
A STREAM OF TROPICAL TO SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
AND GREAT LAKES DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE IS NOW MOVING
INTO DAY 5 BUT SOME PRECIPITATION COULD REMAIN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD. TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUMES FROM THE GULF AND EASTERN PACIFIC CONVERGE
AND BRING ENHANCED CHANCES (>40%) FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTHWARD AROUND THE
MID-LEVEL AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST AND INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN THE SOUTHEAST,
NORMAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION BRINGS NEAR TO A SLIGHT LEAN TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. IN THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC STATES,
CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED. NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN THE
GREAT BASIN AND CALIFORNIA BEHIND THE MAIN AXIS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE
SOUTHWEST. OVER ALASKA, WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND AS THE
UPPER-AIR PATTERN SWITCHES FROM RIDGING TO TROUGHING OVER THE COURSE OF THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD, THE ODDS TILT WEAKLY TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
MOST OF THE STATE, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES (>40%) FOR SOUTHERN
ALASKA AND NEAR AND ALONG THE BROOKS RANGE. FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CHANCES
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE STRONGEST TOWARDS THE WEST WITH LOWER
CHANCES FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND, CONSISTENT WITH THE HAWAII CON AND
AUTOBLEND.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL TOOLS IS OFFSET BY DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 28 - JUL 04, 2025
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A CONTINUED
DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN THAT BEGAN DURING THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. TROUGHING DEVELOPS
OFF THE WEST COAST BY THE END OF WEEK-2 HELPING TO DEVELOP A WEAK RIDGE OVER
THE INTERIOR WEST BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. A SECOND WEAK TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS DURING WEEK-2, GIVING A
BREAK TO THE EXTREME HEAT RISK FORECAST FOR WEEK-1. HOWEVER, RIDGING MAY
REDEVELOP BY THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK-2. IN THE PERIOD MEAN GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW
IS FAVORED ACROSS THE CONUS WITH SLIGHTLY POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. WEAK TROUGHING IS FAVORED TO CONTINUE OVER THE BERING
SEA, WHILE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
DURING WEEK-2 UNDER CONTINUED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. PROBABILITIES
ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IN THE EAST DUE TO
DE-AMPLIFICATION AND PROGRESSION OF THE EAST COAST RIDGE BUT STILL EXCEED 60%
FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION AND INTO THE PLAINS. IN WEEK-2, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY
WEAKLY FAVORED FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IN ALASKA, A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINS FOR THE NORTH SLOPE UNDER CONTINUED POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORED (>40%) FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WITH THE WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA. HAWAII CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, SUPPORTED BY THE HAWAII CON.
OVERALL, THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR WEEK-2 HAS LOW PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE
CONUS. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
THIS IS LIKELY TO BE GENERAL CONVECTIVE SUMMERTIME PRECIPITATION AND IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT ANY ENHANCED SIGNAL. IN THE FOUR-CORNERS AND RIO GRANDE
VALLEY, THE ACTIVE EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON MAY HELP TO ENHANCE
MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION, AND ABOVE-NORMAL IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED IN THESE
AREAS. ELSEWHERE IN THE WEST, PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL
WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE
BERING SEA TILTS ALL OF ALASKA TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ALSO CONTINUES TO BE WEAKLY FAVORED FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON
DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF
TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL
TOOLS IS OFFSET BY DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 17.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19780610 - 19940612 - 20000604 - 19690630 - 20010620
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20010620 - 19780610 - 19690630 - 19940613 - 20000603
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 26 - 30 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE N A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 28 - JUL 04, 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA N N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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