153
FXUS01 KWBC 212009
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
408 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025
VALID 00Z SUN JUN 22 2025 - 00Z TUE JUN 24 2025
..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY, AS WELL
AS UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/ CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY...
...THERE IS A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER OVER PARTS OF THE
GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER GREAT
LAKES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN INTO
THE GREAT BASIN WILL HAVE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THAT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR JAMES BAY, CANADA, BY
MONDAY EVENING. THE TRAILING FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.
FURTHERMORE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES. ADDITIONALLY, MOISTURE
AND UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES AND THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
ON SUNDAY, MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWESTWARD OVER TEXAS AND
INTERACT WITH UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, CREATING HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL
STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
IN ADDITION, THE MOISTURE WILL FLOW NORTHWARD EAST OF A DRYLINE
AND ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES. MOREOVER, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 65 KNOTS OR GREATER AND HAIL TWO INCHES
OR GREATER OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
FURTHER, MOISTURE POOLING ALONG A FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL
AID IN PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHER MID-ATLANTIC FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.
MOREOVER, MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHEAST.
ON MONDAY, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
FRONT OVER THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, PRODUCING TWO AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. THE FIRST
AREA WILL COVER PARTS OF THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING,
WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE
MOST VULNERABLE.
THE SECOND AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING
AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MOREOVER, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FRONT ALONG PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKE/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKE/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
LIKEWISE, MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY OVER PARTS OF THE GULF COAST
STATES AND THE SOUTHEAST.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY, LEAVING AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. THE ENERGY WILL PRODUCE
RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER, WET
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
PROMPTING A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PARTS OF GLACIER NATIONAL
PARK FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ALSO, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SUNDAY.
ELSEWHERE, DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE 90S TO 100 F AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. THE DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING INTO THE STRONG FLOW
ALOFT, COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT, WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF 20-25 MPH SUSTAINED
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS (WITH HIGHER GUSTS), WHICH HAS
PROMPTED A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT
BASIN/SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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