153  
FXUS01 KWBC 212009  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
408 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025  
 
VALID 00Z SUN JUN 22 2025 - 00Z TUE JUN 24 2025  
 
..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF  
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY, AS WELL  
AS UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/ CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN  
ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY...  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL  
PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY...  
 
...THERE IS A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER OVER PARTS OF THE  
GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...  
 
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER GREAT  
LAKES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN INTO  
THE GREAT BASIN WILL HAVE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS THAT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR JAMES BAY, CANADA, BY  
MONDAY EVENING. THE TRAILING FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER  
GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT  
BASIN. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS  
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST.  
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST  
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND  
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.  
 
FURTHERMORE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF  
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES. ADDITIONALLY, MOISTURE  
AND UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES AND THE  
SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
ON SUNDAY, MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWESTWARD OVER TEXAS AND  
INTERACT WITH UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS, CREATING HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN  
TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A  
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF  
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO FROM SUNDAY INTO  
MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY  
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL  
STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.  
 
IN ADDITION, THE MOISTURE WILL FLOW NORTHWARD EAST OF A DRYLINE  
AND ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES AND  
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL  
2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES AND  
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  
THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT  
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW  
TORNADOES. MOREOVER, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT OF SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 65 KNOTS OR GREATER AND HAIL TWO INCHES  
OR GREATER OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY.  
 
FURTHER, MOISTURE POOLING ALONG A FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL  
AID IN PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE  
NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED  
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHER MID-ATLANTIC FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY  
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A  
MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.  
 
MOREOVER, MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN OHIO/TENNESSEE  
VALLEYS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHEAST.  
 
ON MONDAY, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ALONG THE DRYLINE AND  
FRONT OVER THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL  
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, PRODUCING TWO AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. THE FIRST  
AREA WILL COVER PARTS OF THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND  
CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL  
2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER/MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED  
HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING,  
WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE  
MOST VULNERABLE.  
THE SECOND AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE  
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS  
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS  
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY. THE  
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH  
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING  
AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.  
 
MOREOVER, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE  
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FRONT ALONG PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT  
LAKE/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A  
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE  
UPPER GREAT LAKE/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY. THE HAZARDS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.  
 
LIKEWISE, MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY OVER PARTS OF THE GULF COAST  
STATES AND THE SOUTHEAST.  
 
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY, LEAVING AN  
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. THE ENERGY WILL PRODUCE  
RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER, WET  
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,  
PROMPTING A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PARTS OF GLACIER NATIONAL  
PARK FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT LOWER  
ELEVATIONS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION  
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ALSO, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE  
INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON  
SUNDAY.  
 
ELSEWHERE, DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT  
BASIN DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING  
INTO THE 90S TO 100 F AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING INTO THE  
SINGLE DIGITS. THE DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING INTO THE STRONG FLOW  
ALOFT, COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT, WILL  
CONTRIBUTE TO AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF 20-25 MPH SUSTAINED  
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS (WITH HIGHER GUSTS), WHICH HAS  
PROMPTED A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT  
BASIN/SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.  
 
ZIEGENFELDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 

 
 
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