750  
FXUS01 KWBC 222001  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
401 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025  
 
VALID 00Z MON JUN 23 2025 - 00Z WED JUN 25 2025  
 
...THERE ARE EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES ACROSS MUCH  
OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...  
 
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF  
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY...  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF  
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS, SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO, AND NORTHERN  
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY, AS WELL AS UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON  
MONDAY...  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/UPPER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY AS WELL AS  
UPPER GREAT LAKES, UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND CENTRAL  
PLAINS ON MONDAY...  
 
THERE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THAT WILL BE  
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME  
HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD  
OF THE COUNTRY. EXTREME HEAT SHIFTS EAST OVER THE MIDWEST AND  
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AND EXPANDS TO THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY.  
LIGHT WINDS, SUNNY DAYS, RECORD-HIGH DAYTIME, AND HIGH OVERNIGHT  
TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE A LACK OF OVERNIGHT COOLING,  
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING THE DANGER. THIS HEAT LEVEL CAN BE  
DANGEROUS TO ANYONE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING AND/OR ADEQUATE  
HYDRATION, ESPECIALLY THOSE ENGAGING IN LENGTHY OUTDOOR  
ACTIVITIES. HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING  
EXTREME HEAT. WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT AND LOOSE-FITTING CLOTHING. TAKE  
ACTION WHEN YOU SEE SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE.  
 
IN ADDITION, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE  
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THEN INTO THE  
GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES,  
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY  
EVENING. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND EAST OF THE  
DRYLINE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND  
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH  
MONDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND  
A FEW TORNADOES. MOREOVER, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT OF  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 65 KNOTS OR GREATER AND HAIL TWO  
INCHES OR GREATER OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
 
FURTHERMORE, MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWESTWARD OVER TEXAS AND  
INTERACT WITH UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS, CREATING HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN  
TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THEREFORE, THROUGH MONDAY  
MORNING, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW  
MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED  
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS,  
AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.  
 
MOREOVER, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MOISTURE  
ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PRODUCE  
SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE  
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK  
(LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN  
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN  
WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN  
AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST  
VULNERABLE.  
 
ADDITIONALLY, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC  
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND  
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.  
 
MOREOVER, ON SUNDAY, MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL  
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN  
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHEAST.  
 
ON MONDAY, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE  
UPPER GREAT LAKES, UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND CENTRAL  
PLAINS, PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREAS.  
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKE/UPPER/MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY  
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A  
FEW TORNADOES.  
 
FURTHERMORE, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN  
COVERING PARTS OF THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL  
PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.  
THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF  
FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND  
LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.  
 
A SECOND AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE  
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS  
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS  
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM MONDAY  
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE  
MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS,  
SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.  
 
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE  
COUNTRY.  
 
ELSEWHERE, ON SUNDAY, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES  
WILL HELP PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE  
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, WHICH WILL  
TAPER OFF BY MONDAY.  
 
ON TUESDAY, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN  
ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS,  
THUNDERSTORMS, AND HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY.  
NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODING EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, MANY  
STREAMS MAY FLOOD, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING LARGER RIVERS.  
 
FURTHER, HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP RIVER PARTS OF THE  
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER /MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON  
TUESDAY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4)  
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS  
AND UPPER /MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED  
HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING,  
WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE  
MOST VULNERABLE.  
 
IN ADDITION, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER  
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A  
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE  
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND  
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.  
 
ZIEGENFELDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 
 
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