514
FXUS01 KWBC 231853
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
253 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
VALID 00Z TUE JUN 24 2025 - 00Z THU JUN 26 2025
...THERE ARE EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY AND UPPER/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT
ADVISORIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY,
AFFECTING NEARLY 160 MILLION PEOPLE. LIGHT WINDS, SUNNY DAYS,
RECORD-HIGH DAYTIME, AND HIGH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE A
LACK OF OVERNIGHT COOLING, SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING THE DANGER.
THIS HEAT LEVEL CAN BE DANGEROUS TO ANYONE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE
COOLING AND/OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION, ESPECIALLY THOSE ENGAGING IN
LENGTHY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING EXTREME HEAT. WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT AND
LOOSE-FITTING CLOTHING. TAKE ACTION WHEN YOU SEE SYMPTOMS OF HEAT
EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE.
IN ADDITION, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY WHILE CONTINUING ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/CENTRAL ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, UPPER/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
MOREOVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE, THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS,
AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
FURTHERMORE, MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWESTWARD OVER TEXAS AND
INTERACT WITH UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, CREATING HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS,
AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ON TUESDAY, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTHWARD OVER THE
PLAINS, PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
FEW TORNADOES. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 65 KNOTS OR GREATER OVER THE
AREA.
FURTHERMORE, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
COVERING PARTS OF THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,
ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
A SECOND AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODING EVENTS
ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, MANY STREAMS MAY FLOOD, POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING LARGER RIVERS.
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY.
ON WEDNESDAY, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE
UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, CREATING HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER /MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND
UPPER /MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING,
WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE
MOST VULNERABLE.
FURTHERMORE, MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS,
THUNDERSTORMS, AND HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS,
AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
LIKEWISE, MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY.
ZIEGENFELDER
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