514  
FXUS01 KWBC 231853  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
253 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025  
 
VALID 00Z TUE JUN 24 2025 - 00Z THU JUN 26 2025  
 
...THERE ARE EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES ACROSS MUCH  
OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...  
 
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF  
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY...  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE  
UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN  
ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY AND UPPER/MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY...  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND  
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON  
TUESDAY...  
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT  
ADVISORIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY,  
AFFECTING NEARLY 160 MILLION PEOPLE. LIGHT WINDS, SUNNY DAYS,  
RECORD-HIGH DAYTIME, AND HIGH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE A  
LACK OF OVERNIGHT COOLING, SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING THE DANGER.  
THIS HEAT LEVEL CAN BE DANGEROUS TO ANYONE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE  
COOLING AND/OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION, ESPECIALLY THOSE ENGAGING IN  
LENGTHY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES INCREASE  
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING EXTREME HEAT. WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT AND  
LOOSE-FITTING CLOTHING. TAKE ACTION WHEN YOU SEE SYMPTOMS OF HEAT  
EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE.  
 
IN ADDITION, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE  
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD  
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY WHILE CONTINUING ACROSS THE  
MID-ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/CENTRAL ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY  
EVENING. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS  
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, UPPER/MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS  
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER  
PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,  
AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.  
 
MOREOVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP  
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER/MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE, THROUGH TUESDAY  
MORNING, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL  
PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED  
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS,  
AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.  
 
FURTHERMORE, MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWESTWARD OVER TEXAS AND  
INTERACT WITH UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS, CREATING HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN  
TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A  
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF  
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY  
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED  
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS,  
AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.  
 
ON TUESDAY, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTHWARD OVER THE  
PLAINS, PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A  
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE  
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A  
FEW TORNADOES. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT OF  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 65 KNOTS OR GREATER OVER THE  
AREA.  
 
FURTHERMORE, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN  
COVERING PARTS OF THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND  
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT  
RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE  
UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS FROM  
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL  
CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,  
ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.  
 
A SECOND AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE  
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS  
ISSUED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER  
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM  
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODING EVENTS  
ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, MANY STREAMS MAY FLOOD, POTENTIALLY  
AFFECTING LARGER RIVERS.  
 
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE  
COUNTRY.  
 
ON WEDNESDAY, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN  
ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE  
UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, CREATING HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF  
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER /MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND  
UPPER /MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED  
HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING,  
WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE  
MOST VULNERABLE.  
 
FURTHERMORE, MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS,  
THUNDERSTORMS, AND HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON  
WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED  
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS,  
AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.  
 
LIKEWISE, MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO PRODUCE SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF  
THE COUNTRY.  
 
ZIEGENFELDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 

 
 
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