598
FXUS01 KWBC 241819
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
219 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
VALID 00Z WED JUN 25 2025 - 00Z FRI JUN 27 2025
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HEAT PERSISTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND EAST
COAST...
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY...
...ADDITIONAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS
FROM THE FRONT RANGE TO THE MIDWEST...
..FIRE DANGER IS ELEVATED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY
A VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE HALF OF
THE COUNTRY GENERATING DANGEROUS HEAT AND ELEVATED HUMIDITY
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK; THIS WHILE THE ASSOCIATED "RING OF FIRE"
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL EXISTS ALONG ITS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PERIPHERY, BRINGING ITS OWN SEVERE/FLOODING RELATED RISKS.
EXTENSIVE EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND/OR HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
AFFECT AND CURRENTLY COVER FROM THE ENTIRE EAST COAST TO GEORGIA
ACROSS TO NORTHERN LA/S AR AND UP ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
ABOUT THE IA/IL STATE AND THEN SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AFFECTING
NEARLY HALF OF THE U.S. POPULATION AT 161 MILLION PEOPLE. TODAY,
THE EAST COAST TO THE CAROLINAS HAVE THE MOST EXTREME TEMPERATURES
WITH NUMEROUS DAILY RECORDS ALREADY HAVE FALLEN GIVEN TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 100S, COMBINE THAT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S TO NEAR
80S...HEAT INDICES WILL REACH 115-125 DEGREES. WHILE THIS WILL
REDUCE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TOMORROW INTO THE 90S, THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A VAST AREA OF
LOWS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 75 DEGREES WHICH COULD BE A RECORD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE EAST COAST.
GIVEN THE LARGE URBAN AREA AFFECTED THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
CUMULATIVE HEAT IMPACTS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL EXACERBATE THE HEAT HEALTH IMPACTS
ESPECIALLY BY MIDWEEK. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT CAN BE DANGEROUS TO
ANYONE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND/OR HYDRATION. HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING LONG DURATION HEAT WAVES
SUCH AS THIS. TAKE ACTION WHEN YOU SEE SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION
AND HEAT STROKE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDED RELIEF TOWARD
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC; THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL REMAIN IN THE MAJOR CATEGORY FOR
HEATRISK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
ALONG THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE, SUB-TROPICAL TO TROPICAL
MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF WITH SOME EVEN BEING PULLED ACROSS
NORTHERN OLD MEXICO WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST ACTING AS THE 'RING OF FIRE' OF STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TODAY IS THE BEST OVERLAP OF INGREDIENTS
FOR SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NEW MEXICO, WHERE THERE
REMAINS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 3 OF 4) AND
BROAD FLOOD WATCH IS IN AFFECTED FOR MUCH OF THE STATE AND FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST TEXAS PANHANDLE. SENSITIVE BURN SCAR
AREAS IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ARE ALSO PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO
FLASH FLOODING TODAY. WEST OF THE MOISTURE PLUME, STRONGER WINDS
AND DRIER CONDITIONS HAVE AN ELEVATED RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 3) AREA OF
FIRE WEATHER ACROSS THE GRAND CANYON, SOUTHERN UT INTO FAR NW CO/S
WY. SOME MODEST MID-LEVEL COOLER AIR NEAR THE STAGNANT FRONTAL
ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MAY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RISING TO SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR
SEVERE RISKS OF MAINLY HAIL AND HIGH WINDS, THOUGH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING EXTEND EASTWARD ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONT IN NEB, IA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LESSER SO INTO THE
INTERIOR NORTHEAST, WITH GENERALLY A CATEGORY/RISK LEVEL REDUCED
BY ONE.
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES INTO WEDNESDAY, THE MOISTURE AND STRONGER
MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL RIDE THE RIDGE NORTHWARD REDUCING THE
COVERAGE OF FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL TO LEVEL 2 OF 4, OR SLIGHT
ACROSS NM AND ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHILE THE FOCUS REDUCES TO
A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, THE SHEER MAGNITUDE OF HEAT/HUMIDITY OVER
THE EAST COAST UNDER THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE
WINDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST.
THURSDAY, THE ACTIVITY UNDER THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER; WHILE THE ENHANCED MOISTURE FLUX
CONTINUES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED.
GALLINA
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