449
FXUS06 KWBC 241902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE JUNE 24 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 30 - JUL 04, 2025
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED
PRIMARILY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS DUE TO
RECENT MODEL SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, WHILE A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONTIGUOUS
UNITED STATES (CONUS) AND A RELATIVE TROUGH WITH WEAKER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED
ACROSS HAWAII.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA, EXCLUDING THE WEST
COAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE AUTO TEMPERATURE BLEND OF MODEL TOOLS AND THE
TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED ECMWF AND GEFS FORECASTS. NEAR- TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE CONUS, UNDER POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70
PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN UNDER THE PREDICTED RIDGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
PARTS OF COLORADO, NEW MEXICO, KASAS, OKLAHOMA, AND WESTERN TEXAS, CONSISTENT
WITH THE AUTO BLEND AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS DUE TO THE FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION. THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MOST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, EXCLUDING THE BIG ISLAND, ASSOCIATED WITH
ABOVE AVERAGE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION, AND FAVORED
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES OVER EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY
FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, AHEAD OF A TROUGH LATER IN THE
PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION AND THE AUTO BLEND.
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 60 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST MONSOON REGION WITH PREDICTED MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOST AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI, CONSISTENT
WITH MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS AND THE FLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THESE
REGIONS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH
THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION AND ABOVE AVERAGE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE REGION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT-AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON THE MEAN MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN, WITH
UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO A PROGRESSIVE HEIGHT FORECAST AND DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION MODEL FORECAST TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 02 - 08 2025
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA
DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT, WHILE THE
OVERALL PATTERN EVOLVES AND DEAMPLIFIES LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE
MANUAL BLEND OF MODEL FORECASTS, A RIDGE AND AMPLIFIED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES PERSIST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC AND THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS,
WHILE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST OVER THE BERING SEA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA. THE PREDICTED RIDGE AND CENTER OF POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES,
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, PROGRESSES EASTWARD
SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IN WEEK 2. TROUGHS ARE FORECAST
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ACROSS HAWAII.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, SOUTHERN
MAINLAND ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, UNDER THE
PREDICTED TROUGH AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INTERIOR MAINLAND
ALASKA IN WEEK 2, CONSISTENT WITH THE AUTO BLEND OF MODEL TOOLS AND THE
TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION. WITH THE DEAMPLIFICATION OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS IN WEEK 2, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
IN THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR THESE REGIONS LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN THE AREA
OF FAVORED NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
LIKELY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE
AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION
AND CLOUDINESS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF
THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST REGIONS, CONSISTENT WITH THE AUTO
BLEND AND TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
ACROSS MOST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, EXCLUDING SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE BIG
ISLAND, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS MAINLAND
ALASKA AND FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA AHEAD OF PREDICTED TROUGHS DURING THE
PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS IN WEEK 2, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE MUCH ENHANCED FOR THE SOUTHWEST
REGION IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION FROM
THE TROPICS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED FOR THE GREAT
PLAINS, THE OHIO VALLEY, AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS IN WEEK 2,
CONSISTENT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THESE REGIONS. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN CONUS, SUPPORTED BY MOST
OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII IN WEEK 2, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION AND THE AUTO BLEND OF PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FORECAST, OFFSET BY WEAK
SIGNALS IN THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE TOOLS FOR MANY AREAS, AND A
DEAMPLIFICATION OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER MANY REGIONS IN MODEL
FORECASTS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 17.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20040607 - 20050626 - 19840610 - 19520626 - 19900614
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20050627 - 20040607 - 19990604 - 19840610 - 19530618
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 30 - JUL 04, 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA N A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 02 - 08 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA B A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N A OHIO N N KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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