946
FXUS06 KWBC 271938
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI JUNE 27 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 03 - 07 2025
THE ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MODELS PREDICT A VARIABLE PATTERN DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH WEAKER TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION SIGNALS AND
INCREASING DIFFERENCES. HOWEVER, MOST MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL 500-HPA
HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS. THE MANUAL HEIGHT
BLEND IS BASED ON 0Z ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHING THE ECMWF MODEL GREATER DUE TO
RECENT MODEL ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND SHOWS A BROAD
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND BERING SEA EXTENDING INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. A TROUGH AND
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER CALIFORNIA AND
THE SOUTHWEST IN ALL ENSEMBLE MEANS. A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS
UNITED STATES (CONUS), AND A TROUGH WITH WEAKER 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
PREDICTED ACROSS HAWAII IN THE MANUAL BLEND OF MODELS.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND
ALASKA, WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER
AND AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE
CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED ECMWF AND GEFS FORECASTS. EXCLUDING PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COASTAL REGIONS, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MOST OF
THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS,
EXCLUDING NORTHERN AREAS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, CONSISTENT
WITH THE AUTO BLEND OF TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST, UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH
AND WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS DUE TO THE FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE
TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, EXCLUDING THE SOUTHEASTERN BIG ISLAND, ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH.
EXCLUDING THE WEST COAST, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION OF
CALIBRATED ECMWF AND GEFS FORECASTS. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION EXCEED 60 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON REGION AND
50 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH PREDICTED ENHANCED MOISTURE
FLOW INTO THESE REGIONS. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION AND THE
AUTO BLEND. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT
WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION AND ABOVE AVERAGE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE REGION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT-AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON THE MEAN MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN, WITH
UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO A VARIABLE HEIGHT FORECAST AND DIFFERENCES AMONG
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 05 - 11 2025
ECWMF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT,
WHILE THE PATTERN EVOLVES AND DEAMPLIFIES. IN THE MANUAL BLEND OF MODEL
FORECASTS, A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC, WHILE THE PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA DEAMPLIFIES. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS IN WEEK 2. SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ACROSS
HAWAII.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR
NORTHERN INTERIOR MAINLAND ALASKA IN WEEK 2, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE
CONSOLIDATION. EXCLUDING THE WEST COAST, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
BE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, UNDER A
PREDICTED RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST, AS THE TROUGH OVER THE
REGION DEAMPLIFIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PART OF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST AROUND SAN FRANCISCO BAY, CONSISTENT WITH MOST TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS,
UNDER RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS
MOST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS EXCLUDING THE BIG ISLAND, CONSISTENT WITH THE
TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR MAINLAND ALASKA, EXCLUDING
THE NORTH SLOPE, AND FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH DURING
THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR NORTHERN AREAS
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN WEEK 2, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED FOR PARTS OF
THE SOUTHWEST REGION IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD WITH CONTINUED INCREASED MOISTURE
FLOW INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOST OF THE
EASTERN CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS AND THE CONSOLIDATION.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
IN WEEK 2, CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF MODEL FORECAST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII IN WEEK 2, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION AND THE AUTO BLEND OF PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FORECAST, OFFSET BY WEAK
SIGNALS IN THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE TOOLS FOR MANY AREAS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 17.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19520630 - 19940704 - 20040609 - 19840615 - 19750622
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19520630 - 20040610 - 19880709 - 19940704 - 19750622
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 03 - 07 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF B N
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO A A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH N A ARIZONA B A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N N
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 05 - 11 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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