050
FXUS01 KWBC 280723
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
323 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
VALID 12Z SAT JUN 28 2025 - 12Z MON JUN 30 2025
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY AND OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHEAST, OHIO VALLEY, AND MID-ATLANTIC. ON
SATURDAY, SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE OVER PARTS
OF THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. SOUTH OF THE FRONT,
UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES, DAYTIME HEATING, AND AMPLE AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND GULF COAST.
ON SUNDAY, THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AS A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
MID-ATLANTIC. LIKEWISE, SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG OR
SEVERE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. SIMILARLY, UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES,
DAYTIME HEATING, AND AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
SOUTHEAST, OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND GULF COAST.
MEANWHILE, A SECOND FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE
GREAT LAKES, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY MONDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. ON SATURDAY, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
FEW TORNADOES. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT OF HAIL
TWO INCHES OR GREATER OVER MINNESOTA.
IN ADDITION, UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES, DAYTIME HEATING, AND MOISTURE
WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ON SUNDAY, AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD, SHOWERS AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES AND HAIL.
MOREOVER, UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES, DAYTIME HEATING, AND MOISTURE WILL
CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS,
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SUNDAY.
ELSEWHERE, ON SATURDAY, WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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