323  
FXUS01 KWBC 290743  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
342 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025  
 
VALID 12Z SUN JUN 29 2025 - 12Z TUE JUL 01 2025  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY...  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND  
CENTRAL PLAINS/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY...  
 
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE  
LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY, AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY  
OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC  
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE OVER PARTS OF THE  
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL  
PLAINS/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.  
 
IN ADDITION, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL  
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY  
RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH  
URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST  
VULNERABLE.  
 
MEANWHILE, A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL AID  
IN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.  
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) OF  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY  
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, AND A MINIMAL  
THREAT OF TORNADOES AND HAIL.  
 
SOUTH OF THE FRONT, UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES, DAYTIME HEATING, AND  
MOISTURE WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY OVER THE  
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,  
AND THE SOUTHEAST. SIMILARLY, UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES, DAYTIME  
HEATING, AND MOISTURE WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER  
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ALSO, ON SUNDAY, SCATTERED RAIN  
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS LOW  
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.  
 
ON MONDAY, AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO  
VALLEY, SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP  
OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO  
THE OHIO VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.  
 
MOREOVER, UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES, DAYTIME HEATING, AND MOISTURE WILL  
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN  
MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST, THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE  
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.  
 
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO PARTS OF THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST, PROMPTING HEAT ADVISORIES OVER PARTS OF WASHINGTON  
STATE, OREGON, AND IDAHO FROM MONDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY.  
 
ZIEGENFELDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 

 
 
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