515
FXUS02 KWBC 291904
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
304 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
VALID 12Z WED JUL 02 2025 - 12Z SUN JUL 06 2025
..A WET PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
...SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS MONSOONAL FLOW AS THE
TROPICS ACTIVATE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND BAY OF CAMPECHE...
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL GUIDANCE, AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD, REMAINS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WHICH FEATURES
AN UPPER LOW EXITING THE GREAT LAKES AND TROUGHING BEING REINFORCED
OVER THE WEST COAST. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD, THE MOST
PRONOUNCED DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE HANDLING OF NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIFFERENCES FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE WEST
COAST AND INLAND. THE AFFECTS HOW MUCH A CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE GETS
ERODED TO THE NORTH, AND SMALLER SCALE MESOSCALE SYSTEMS RIDING THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE. ONE THING THAT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT, IS THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN INCREASED SIGNAL FOR MONSOONAL FLOW
INTO THE SOUTHWEST WITH SOME CONNECTION TO TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE
IN THE EAST PACIFIC. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS ALSO HINTING AT
LEFTOVER LOW PRESSURE FROM A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST, WHICH MAY MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OR LINGER IN
THE EASTERN GULF. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING MONITORED FOR LOW
PROBABILITIES OF DEVELOPING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, AS SHOWN BY
THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER.
THE WPC FORECAST FOR TODAY USED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND THE FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD, INCREASING CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS THE LATTER HALF FOR INCREASING SPREAD. THIS DOES MAINTAIN
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST AS WELL.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DEEP MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BRING HEAVY
CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS AHEAD OF A UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT INTO
MID-LATE WEEK OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST U.S. WHERE WPC EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK (ERO) MARGINAL RISK AREAS EXIST DAY 4/WEDNESDAY
AND DAY 5/THURSDAY. A FOCUS FOR MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAINS SLOWLY SHIFTS
TO GULF COASTAL NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA WHERE A SLIGHT RISK AREA
CONTINUES FOR DAY 5/THURSDAY GIVEN PRECURSOR RAINS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL GIVEN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET SUPPORT
AND ANOMALOUS GULF MOISTURE. FOCUS MAY SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER
FLORIDA LATE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH SOME CONNECTION TO EASTERN PACIFIC (TS
FLOSSIE) AND BAY OF CAMPECHE (TS BARRY) TROPICAL FEATURES IS LIKELY
TO INCREASE COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL OF RAIN AMOUNTS INTO MID- LATER
THIS WEEK INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WARMING CENTRAL U.S. UPPER RIDGE. ERO
MARGINAL RISK AREAS ARE IN PLACE THERE FOR DAY 4/WEDNESDAY AND DAY
5/THURSDAY. AREAS LIKE THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, WHERE THE STEEP
TERRAIN AND BURN SCARS CAUSE THE AREA TO BE PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE
TO RAIN AND MOST VULNERABLE TO POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY
WITH WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS THERE.
ELSEWHERE, PERIODIC AFTERNOON AND NOCTURNAL STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS OFFER A VARIED GUIDANCE SIGNAL TO MONITOR FOR HEAVY
RAIN/RUNOFF POTENTIAL TO EMERGE MORE CLEARLY OUT FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TO FOCUS LOCALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGH/IMPULSE ENERGIES WORK ON
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY POOLING NEAR WAVY PASSING AND DRAPING FRONTS.
WEEKEND ACTIVITY WITH UPPER SYSTEM/FRONTAL PROGRESSIONS IS SLATED
TO WORK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES.
SANTORELLI/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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