563
FXUS02 KWBC 301844
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
244 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
VALID 12Z THU JUL 03 2025 - 12Z MON JUL 07 2025
..MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING THREAT FOR FLORIDA
...SOUTHWEST U.S. TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS MONSOONAL RAINS
AS THE TROPICS ACTIVATE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE GULF...
..NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST HEAVY CONVECTION/RAIN THREAT
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, REMAINING FAIRLY
CLUSTERED INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND SOLUTION
DIVERGE ON ENERGY STREAMING THE PACIFIC TO THE WEST COAST AND
POINTS INLAND. THIS VARIANCES PLAY A ROLE IN HOW MUCH THE RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL ERODE WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES RIDING
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A PERSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST THANKS TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE FLOSSIE IN THE EAST PACIFIC NEAR MEXICO AND T.D. BARRY OUT
FROM THE GULF. ADDITIONALLY, SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING LEFTOVER
GULF LOW PRESSURE FROM A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. MAY IMPACT THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK/WEEKEND. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR
THIS FEATURE.
GIVEN ABOVE AVERAGE CLUSTERING, A MULTI-MODEL APPROACH WAS USED FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS BEFORE INCLUDING THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST WAS COMPRISED MAINLY
BY THE MEANS.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DEEP MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BRING HEAVY
CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS AHEAD OF A UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT INTO
LATE WEEK FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST U.S./FLORIDA WHERE WPC EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK (ERO) MARGINAL RISK AREAS EXIST DAY 4/THURSDAY
AND DAY 5/FRIDAY. A FOCUS FOR MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAINS MAY WORK TO
GULF COASTAL CENTRAL FLORIDA WHERE A SLIGHT RISK AREA CONTINUES FOR
DAY 4/THURSDAY AND DAY 5/FRIDAY GIVEN PRECURSOR RAINS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL GIVEN INITIAL RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET
SUPPORT AND ANOMALOUS GULF TROPICAL MOISTURE. FOCUS MAY SHIFT
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH SOME CONNECTION TO EASTERN PACIFIC (T.S.
FLOSSIE) AND BAY OF CAMPECHE (T.D. BARRY) TROPICAL FEATURES IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE SPATIALLY WHICH IN TURN SHOULD BOOST
POTENTIAL RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN
ROCKIES/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND LOCATIONS ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A WARMING CENTRAL U.S. UPPER RIDGE.
AN ERO MARGINAL RISK AREA WAS MAINTAINED THERE FOR DAY 4/THURSDAY,
SLOWLY SHIFTING FOCUS TO THE FAR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DAY
5/FRIDAY. AREAS LIKE THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, WHERE THE STEEP
TERRAIN AND BURN SCARS CAUSE THE AREA TO BE PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE
TO RAIN AND MOST VULNERABLE TO POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY
WITH WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS THERE.
ELSEWHERE, PERIODIC AFTERNOON AND NOCTURNAL STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS/MCS ACTIVITY OFFER HEAVY RAIN/RUNOFF POTENTIAL TO FOCUS OVER
THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST LATE WEEK INTO SATURDAY
AS UPPER TROUGH/IMPULSE ENERGIES WORK OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE MAIN CENTRAL U.S. UPPER RIDGE AS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY POOLS
NEAR WAVY PASSING AND DRAPING FRONTS. WPC ERO MARGINAL RISK AREAS
HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR DAY 4/THURSDAY AND DAY 5/FRIDAY. WEEKEND
TO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACTIVITY WITH UPPER SYSTEM/FRONTAL PROGRESSIONS
THEN WORK OVER THE CENTRAL MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST.
CAMPBELL/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page