661  
FXUS01 KWBC 022016  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
416 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2025  
 
VALID 00Z THU JUL 03 2025 - 00Z SAT JUL 05 2025  
 
...SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS  
AND NEW MEXICO AND AROUND THE TAMPA BAY REGION FOR THURSDAY...  
 
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE DAKOTAS AND  
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW...  
 
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE  
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK...  
 
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL GENERALLY SEE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE  
BUILD AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST FOR  
TOMORROW AND THEN TO THE EAST COAST BY THE WEEKEND. ANOMALOUS  
WARMTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND PLAINS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL  
THEN BE FELT ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, AND EAST COAST  
FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. THEN, A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE  
WEST AND BRING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES  
AND DAKOTAS FOR TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY, SPARKING LOCALLY STRONG  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. A FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY WILL CLEAR MOST OF THE EAST COAST AND BRING MUCH DRIER  
CONDITIONS, BUT THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND  
INTERACT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN,  
ESPECIALLY AROUND THE SUN COAST AND TAMPA BAY, AND MAY PRODUCE  
FLASH FLOODING. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST.  
 
ON THURSDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN  
WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA. THEREFORE, THE WPC  
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER  
PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST FOR THURSDAY; THE QPF FORECAST  
CALLS FOR ANOTHER 2-3 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR TOMORROW WITH LOCALLY  
HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LOCALIZED AREAS OF  
FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND  
LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL  
LINGER OVER FLORIDA FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND, BUT THE FLOODING  
RISK SHOULD LESSEN.  
 
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST  
FOR THURSDAY, WITH A TARGETED SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST  
TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO. HIGH RAINFALL RATES WILL BE PROMOTED BY HIGH  
SURFACE MOISTURE AND SENSITIVE AREAS COULD FLOOD THAT SEE A COUPLE  
OF INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME.  
 
ON FRIDAY, A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR  
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS A FRONT PROVIDES A  
SOURCE FOR POTENTIAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ATOP THE RIDGE.  
SURFACE FRONTS AND GENERAL TROUGHING ATOP THE RIDGE WILL ALSO  
SUPPORT SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FOR TOMORROW WITH THE  
MAIN HAZARDS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THE RISK FOR STRONG  
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL WILL THEN SHIFT  
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER  
MIDWEST. THE NORTHEAST WILL SEE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY  
AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL ARE  
THE MOST LIKELY THREATS.  
 
WILDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 
 
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