295  
FXUS01 KWBC 032001  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
400 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2025  
 
VALID 00Z FRI JUL 04 2025 - 00Z SUN JUL 06 2025  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WITH LINGERING AREAS OF HEAVY  
RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND FLORIDA.  
 
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY  
ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS AND ALONG THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A FRONT  
ENTERS THE REGION...  
 
HEAT WILL BE MIGRATING EASTWARDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION  
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WITH NOTABLE  
POPULATION CENTERS ENTERING THE MAJOR HEAT RISK CATEGORY...  
 
IN GENERAL, THE FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED FROM  
YESTERDAY'S THOUGHTS. FOR THE 4TH OF JULY, THERE WILL STILL BE  
AMPLE MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE FLOODING  
RISK MAY NOT BE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS DAYS, BUT A MARGINAL RISK  
CONTINUES ACROSS AREAS OF WESTERN TEXAS WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN  
AMOUNTS COULD PROMPT FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING  
AREAS. FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABUNDANT SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF LOWERING PRESSURES  
AROUND A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME AREAS ALONG THE TAMPA BAY  
REGION MAY SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, EVEN FOR JULY STANDARDS IN THE  
REGION, WHICH COULD PRODUCE PONDING IN LOW-LYING LOCATIONS. FOR  
THE HIGH PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA, SOME STRONGER, ORGANIZED STORMS  
COULD FIRE ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION TOMORROW.  
TRAINING OF LINEAR STORM CLUSTERS COULD DROP 2-3 INCHES OF  
RAINFALL AND THUS WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4).  
 
THE 4TH OF JULY COULD BE STORMY FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND  
NORTHERN PLAINS. ENERGY FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE BROADER  
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD SPARK ORGANIZED  
THUNDERSTORMS FROM KANSAS TO NORTH DAKOTA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UPPER MIDWEST COULD ALSO SEE LOCALLY  
STRONG STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH THE PROXIMITY TO A COLD FRONT  
MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE MAIN HAZARDS SHOULD BE STRONG WINDS WITH  
STORM CLUSTERS THAT ORGANIZE. SOME HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN  
SUPER-CELLULAR STRUCTURES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ALSO  
CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK ACROSS THE GREAT  
BASIN TOMORROW WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.  
 
FOR TEMPERATURES ON THE 4TH OF JULY, MOST OF THE WEST, SOUTHERN  
PLAINS, AND NORTHEAST SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW  
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HIGHS IN THE WEST WILL SEE 70S  
AND 60S IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, WHILE THE SOUTHERN  
PART OF THE WEST STILL REACHES THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. THE DESERT  
SOUTHWEST WILL BE IN THE LOW 100S AND PLENTY WARM STILL. THE  
RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK AROUND TEXAS AND FLORIDA  
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S. A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE  
NORTHEAST AND BRING LOWER HUMIDITY WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN  
THE 70S AND THE 80S. THE HOTPOT FOR THE 4TH WILL BE THE MIDWEST  
AND OHIO VALLEY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S. THIS  
HEAT WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST COAST INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK  
AND LATE WEEKEND. RESIDENTS IN CITIES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE  
URBAN CORRIDOR BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL WANT TO DRINK PLENTY OF  
WATER AND TAKE COOL BREAKS.  
 
WILDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab HPC Page
Main Text Page