882  
FXUS01 KWBC 040828  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
400 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2025  
 
VALID 12Z FRI JUL 04 2025 - 12Z SUN JUL 06 2025  
 
...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXPECTED  
TODAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH LINGERING  
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND FLORIDA.  
 
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASING FOR COASTAL CAROLINAS AS THE  
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MONITORS THE POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL  
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...  
 
...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE MIGRATING EASTWARDS ACROSS THE GREAT  
LAKES REGION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND,  
WITH NOTABLE POPULATION CENTERS ENTERING THE MAJOR HEAT RISK  
CATEGORY...  
 
ON THIS 4TH OF JULY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, THE MOST ACTIVE  
WEATHER ACROSS THE NATION WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF A LIFTING WARM FRONT,  
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MARCHING THROUGH THE REGION. A COUPLE OF  
CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING VERY HEAVY  
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALREADY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF NORTH  
DAKOTA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF MINNESOTA EARLY THIS  
MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH A LULL LATER THIS  
MORNING BEFORE RE-FIRING THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY ON SATURDAY  
ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL CORRIDOR AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS  
ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT. THE RAIN WILL THEN REACH THE GREAT  
LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM GETS READY TO EXIT INTO CANADA. MEANWHILE, STRONG TO  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO  
SUNDAY MORNING, THIS TIME FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH  
PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  
 
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH LIFTS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE  
WESTERN U.S. TODAY, THE RECENT SPELL OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE  
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF TODAY. MEANWHILE, AREAS OF  
ENHANCED RAINFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE  
NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH.  
OVER THE PLAINS, CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF  
HEAVY RAIN IN PLACE EARLY TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS (WHICH COULD  
BE ATTRIBUTED TO REMNANT MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL STORM  
BARRY). THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS FORECAST TO LARGELY DIMINISH BY  
LATER TODAY.  
 
NEAR THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA  
HAS FORMED ALONG A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE NATIONAL  
HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL  
CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THIS BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA JUST OFF THE  
COAST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE HAS BEEN AN  
INCREASING CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FORECAST TO REACH THE COASTAL  
SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS LATER THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE  
CIRCULATION CENTER OF THIS LOW SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH A WEAK  
COASTAL FRONT. IN ADDITION, PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN TO  
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A SLIGHT RISK  
OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS PERIODICALLY MOVING ONSHORE  
FROM THE GULF ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  
 
FOR TEMPERATURES ON THE 4TH OF JULY, MOST OF THE WEST, SOUTHERN  
PLAINS, AND NORTHEAST SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW  
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HIGHS IN THE WEST WILL SEE 70S  
AND 60S IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, WHILE THE SOUTHERN  
PART OF THE WEST STILL REACHES THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. THE DESERT  
SOUTHWEST WILL BE IN THE LOW 100S AND PLENTY WARM STILL. THE  
RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK AROUND TEXAS AND FLORIDA  
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S. A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE  
NORTHEAST AND BRING LOWER HUMIDITY WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN  
THE 70S AND THE 80S. THE HOTPOT FOR THE 4TH WILL BE THE MIDWEST  
AND OHIO VALLEY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S. THIS  
HEAT WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST COAST INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK  
AND LATE WEEKEND. RESIDENTS IN CITIES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE  
URBAN CORRIDOR BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL NEED TO DRINK PLENTY OF  
WATER AND TAKE COOL BREAKS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ALSO  
INDICATES AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN  
TODAY WHERE WINDS ARE GUSTY WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.  
 
KONG/WILDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 

 
 
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