224
FXUS01 KWBC 041943
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
342 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2025
VALID 00Z SAT JUL 05 2025 - 00Z MON JUL 07 2025
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE HIGH PLAINS; MORE
FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER SATURATED WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASING FOR COASTAL CAROLINAS AS THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MONITORS THE POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...
...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE MIGRATING EASTWARDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND,
WITH NOTABLE POPULATION CENTERS ENTERING THE MAJOR HEAT RISK
CATEGORY...
ON THIS 4TH OF JULY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, STORMY WEATHER
WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, HIGH PLAINS, AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF A LIFTING WARM FRONT, FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT MARCHING THROUGH THE REGION. FOR TOMORROW, THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A TARTED SLIGHT RISK FROM MONTANA AND
WYOMING EASTWARD TO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON SUNDAY MAY ALSO PRODUCE HAIL WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
NOTED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
IN TERMS OF FLOODING AND HEAVY RAIN, WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL HAVE
THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR IMPACTS FROM FLASH FLOODING. A MCS ACROSS
PARTS OF TEXAS HAS DROPPED SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THURSDAY NIGHT AND THIS AFTERNOON. SATURATED SOILS AND
RIVER FLOODING MAKE THIS AREA SENSITIVE TO MORE RAINFALL. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PERSIST INTO TOMORROW
AS ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL ENERGY PROVIDE A CONDUCIVE
ATMOSPHERE FOR POSSIBLE CONTINUED FLOODING. THEREFORE, WPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. OTHER AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR SATURDAY WILL AGAIN FOCUS
ON FLORIDA AND THE CAROLINA COASTLINE AS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN
THE ATMOSPHERE FROM A TROPICAL LOW BEING MONITORED BY THE
HURRICANE CENTER WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WITHIN RAIN
BANDS AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY WITH THE TROPICAL LOW.
ADDITIONALLY, CLUSTERS OF STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
IN THE HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.
NEAR THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., A BROAD TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE HAS FORMED ALONG A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN
GENERAL, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SQUALLY WEATHER WILL BE THE
MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE. SEE THE
LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST
COAST AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WEEKEND
WILL SEE CITIES SUCH AS CHICAGO, DETROIT, INDIANAPOLIS, AND BOSTON
ENTERING THE MAJOR HEAT RISK CATEGORY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 90S MAY PRODUCE DANGEROUS HEAT IMPACTS. STAY
HYDRATED AND TAKE COOL BREAKS.THE WEST WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER
THAN AVERAGE, AT LEAST RELATIVE TO JULY STANDARDS, AS A TROUGH AND
SURFACE FRONT ARE LOCATED OVER THE REGION.
KONG/WILDER
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