224  
FXUS01 KWBC 041943  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
342 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2025  
 
VALID 00Z SAT JUL 05 2025 - 00Z MON JUL 07 2025  
 
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE  
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE HIGH PLAINS; MORE  
FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER SATURATED WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...  
 
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASING FOR COASTAL CAROLINAS AS THE  
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MONITORS THE POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL  
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...  
 
...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE MIGRATING EASTWARDS ACROSS THE GREAT  
LAKES REGION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND,  
WITH NOTABLE POPULATION CENTERS ENTERING THE MAJOR HEAT RISK  
CATEGORY...  
 
ON THIS 4TH OF JULY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, STORMY WEATHER  
WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, HIGH PLAINS, AND  
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF A LIFTING WARM FRONT, FOLLOWED BY  
A COLD FRONT MARCHING THROUGH THE REGION. FOR TOMORROW, THE STORM  
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A TARTED SLIGHT RISK FROM MONTANA AND  
WYOMING EASTWARD TO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE  
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE  
PLAINS ON SUNDAY MAY ALSO PRODUCE HAIL WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES  
NOTED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.  
 
IN TERMS OF FLOODING AND HEAVY RAIN, WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL HAVE  
THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR IMPACTS FROM FLASH FLOODING. A MCS ACROSS  
PARTS OF TEXAS HAS DROPPED SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE  
REGION FROM THURSDAY NIGHT AND THIS AFTERNOON. SATURATED SOILS AND  
RIVER FLOODING MAKE THIS AREA SENSITIVE TO MORE RAINFALL. THE  
FORECAST CALLS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PERSIST INTO TOMORROW  
AS ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL ENERGY PROVIDE A CONDUCIVE  
ATMOSPHERE FOR POSSIBLE CONTINUED FLOODING. THEREFORE, WPC HAS  
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA ON  
SATURDAY. OTHER AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR SATURDAY WILL AGAIN FOCUS  
ON FLORIDA AND THE CAROLINA COASTLINE AS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN  
THE ATMOSPHERE FROM A TROPICAL LOW BEING MONITORED BY THE  
HURRICANE CENTER WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WITHIN RAIN  
BANDS AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL  
CONTINUE FOR THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY WITH THE TROPICAL LOW.  
ADDITIONALLY, CLUSTERS OF STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT  
IN THE HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE BE  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.  
 
NEAR THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., A BROAD TROPICAL LOW  
PRESSURE HAS FORMED ALONG A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN  
GENERAL, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SQUALLY WEATHER WILL BE THE  
MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE. SEE THE  
LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR MORE  
INFORMATION.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST  
COAST AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WEEKEND  
WILL SEE CITIES SUCH AS CHICAGO, DETROIT, INDIANAPOLIS, AND BOSTON  
ENTERING THE MAJOR HEAT RISK CATEGORY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE  
LOW TO MIDDLE 90S MAY PRODUCE DANGEROUS HEAT IMPACTS. STAY  
HYDRATED AND TAKE COOL BREAKS.THE WEST WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER  
THAN AVERAGE, AT LEAST RELATIVE TO JULY STANDARDS, AS A TROUGH AND  
SURFACE FRONT ARE LOCATED OVER THE REGION.  
 
KONG/WILDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 
 
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