676  
FXUS01 KWBC 042059  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
458 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2025  
 
VALID 00Z SAT JUL 05 2025 - 00Z MON JUL 07 2025  
 
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE  
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE HIGH PLAINS; MORE  
FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER SATURATED WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...  
 
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASING FOR COASTAL CAROLINAS DUE TO  
T.D. THREE LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...  
 
...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE MIGRATING EASTWARDS ACROSS THE GREAT  
LAKES REGION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND,  
WITH NOTABLE POPULATION CENTERS ENTERING THE MAJOR HEAT RISK  
CATEGORY...  
 
ON THIS 4TH OF JULY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, STORMY WEATHER  
WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, HIGH PLAINS, AND  
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF A LIFTING WARM FRONT, FOLLOWED BY  
A COLD FRONT MARCHING THROUGH THE REGION. FOR TOMORROW, THE STORM  
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A TARTED SLIGHT RISK FROM MONTANA AND  
WYOMING EASTWARD TO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE  
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE  
PLAINS ON SUNDAY MAY ALSO PRODUCE HAIL WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES  
NOTED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.  
 
IN TERMS OF FLOODING AND HEAVY RAIN, WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL HAVE  
THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR IMPACTS FROM FLASH FLOODING. A MCS,  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BARRY, ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS HAS  
DROPPED SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY  
NIGHT AND THIS AFTERNOON. SATURATED SOILS AND RIVER FLOODING MAKE  
THIS AREA SENSITIVE TO MORE RAINFALL. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PERSIST INTO TOMORROW AS ANOMALOUS  
MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL ENERGY PROVIDE A CONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERE FOR  
POSSIBLE CONTINUED FLOODING. THEREFORE, WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT  
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. OTHER  
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR SATURDAY WILL AGAIN FOCUS ON FLORIDA AND  
THE CAROLINA COASTLINE AS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE  
FROM A TROPICAL LOW BEING MONITORED BY THE HURRICANE CENTER WILL  
SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WITHIN RAIN BANDS AND DIURNAL  
THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE  
CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY WITH THE TROPICAL LOW. ADDITIONALLY, CLUSTERS  
OF STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE HIGH PLAINS AND  
UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING  
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.  
 
NEAR THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., T.D. THREE HAS FORMED  
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH. IN GENERAL, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND  
SQUALLY WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS ACROSS THE  
SOUTHEAST COASTLINE. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL  
HURRICANE CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST  
COAST AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WEEKEND  
WILL SEE CITIES SUCH AS CHICAGO, DETROIT, INDIANAPOLIS, AND BOSTON  
ENTERING THE MAJOR HEAT RISK CATEGORY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE  
LOW TO MIDDLE 90S MAY PRODUCE DANGEROUS HEAT IMPACTS. STAY  
HYDRATED AND TAKE COOL BREAKS.THE WEST WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER  
THAN AVERAGE, AT LEAST RELATIVE TO JULY STANDARDS, AS A TROUGH AND  
SURFACE FRONT ARE LOCATED OVER THE REGION.  
 
KONG/WILDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 
 
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