787  
FXUS01 KWBC 050834  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
400 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2025  
 
VALID 12Z SAT JUL 05 2025 - 12Z MON JUL 07 2025  
 
...HIGHLY LOCALIZED AND SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS LEAD TO  
ADDITIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FLASH FLOODING TODAY OVER SATURATED  
GROUNDS IN CENTRAL TEXAS...  
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A  
TROPICAL STORM AND BRING HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS  
INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY...  
 
...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FOLLOWED BY STRONG TO  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...  
 
...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE MIGRATING EASTWARDS ACROSS THE GREAT  
LAKES REGION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND,  
WITH NOTABLE POPULATION CENTERS ENTERING THE MAJOR HEAT RISK  
CATEGORY...  
 
A SMALL-SCALE MID-LEVEL VORTEX EJECTED FROM A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX  
OVER THE MEXICAN PLATEAU INTERACTED WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND RESULTED IN A DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODING EVENT  
IN CENTRAL TEXAS ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. THIS MID-LEVEL VORTEX HAS  
SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOTION AS IT MEANDERS TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS  
EARLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE OF THE HEAVY RAIN IN  
CENTRAL TEXAS HAS MUCH REDUCED LAST EVENING, A HIGHLY LOCALIZED  
AND SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORM IS BRINGING ADDITIONAL HEAVY  
DOWNPOURS AND FLASH FLOODING JUST WEST OF AUSTIN, TEXAS EARLY THIS  
MORNING. WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE MEANDERING MID-LEVEL VORTEX,  
THIS SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORM WILL PROLONG THE HIGHLY LOCALIZED  
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS  
THIS MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY BEGIN TO MOVE/EXTEND  
TOWARD SOUTHERN TEXAS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.  
 
FARTHER NORTH, CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE  
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH A LOW PRESSURE WAVE EARLY THIS  
MORNING. AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE NORTHERN  
ROCKIES, A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO  
IMPACT THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE  
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. BY  
LATER ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS  
IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE, THIS TIME FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WHEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPS FARTHER  
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE, SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE  
MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS, AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO  
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE WAVY FRONT HEADING INTO  
MONDAY MORNING.  
 
OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE  
(T.D. 3) IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL STORM TODAY AS  
IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTH TOWARD SOUTH CAROLINA. HEAVY RAIN AND  
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH T.D. 3 ARE FORECAST TO  
REACH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND BECOME MORE  
FREQUENT LATER TODAY AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A WEAK  
COASTAL FRONT. THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO  
MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE  
BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING FURTHER NORTH  
INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY ALONG WITH  
GUSTY WINDS. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER/TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED  
OUT EITHER.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST  
COAST AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WEEKEND  
WILL SEE CITIES SUCH AS CHICAGO, DETROIT, INDIANAPOLIS, AND BOSTON  
ENTERING THE MAJOR HEAT RISK CATEGORY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE  
LOW TO MIDDLE 90S MAY PRODUCE DANGEROUS HEAT IMPACTS. STAY  
HYDRATED AND TAKE COOL BREAKS. THE WEST WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER  
THAN AVERAGE, AT LEAST RELATIVE TO JULY STANDARDS, AS A TROUGH AND  
SURFACE FRONT ARE LOCATED OVER THE REGION.  
 
KONG/WILDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 

 
 
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