854
FXUS01 KWBC 051957
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
356 PM EDT SAT JUL 05 2025
VALID 00Z SUN JUL 06 2025 - 00Z TUE JUL 08 2025
...SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER SATURATED GROUNDS
IN CENTRAL TEXAS...
...TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE
CAROLINAS EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN...
...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FOLLOWED BY STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SATURDAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST COAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH
NOTABLE POPULATION CENTERS ENTERING THE MAJOR HEAT RISK CATEGORY...
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT SMALL-SCALE MID-LEVEL
VORTEX RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVASTATING FLOODING IN CENTRAL TEXAS
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MULTIPLE ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) REMAINS IN EFFECT AS VERY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
LEVELS OF GULF MOISTURE CONTRIBUTE TO TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
(MULTIPLE INCHES OF RAIN PER HOUR), WHICH CAN LEAD TO SCATTERED,
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AND DANGEROUS INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
WHILE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS, SOME STORMS MAY REDEVELOP BY AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY MORNING AND LAST INTO THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH A CONTINUED RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING MAINLY FOR AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN HARD
HIT FROM THE PRIOR DAYS RAINFALL. FORTUNATELY, DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED HEADING INTO MONDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL, LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST,
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO MAKE
LANDFALL BETWEEN CHARLESTON, SC AND CAPE FEAR, NC, EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THIS VICINITY BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES, LOCALLY UPWARDS OF
6", MAY LEAD TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) COVERING COASTAL
AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND FURTHER INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE INTO MONDAY
BUT SOME ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
ARE EXPECTED FROM THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN NORTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. IN ADDITION TO FLASH FLOODING,
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST FROM FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BROADLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE FOCUS THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHWEST TO
THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH SOME ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY, BRINGING STORM CHANCES TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THEN
INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING EXPECTED. FURTHER WEST, STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. FOR SATURDAY EVENING, STORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER. THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FROM
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (LEVEL 3/5) FOR THE THREAT OF VERY
LARGE HAIL AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS. THE STORM FOCUS SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND ADJACENT CENTRAL PLAINS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH SLIGHT RISKS BOTH DAYS FOR A CONTINUED
THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY, WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE, DAILY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST ALONG THE FLORIDA AND CENTRAL GULF COASTS. THE WEST
SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.
HOT, MUGGY WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID-90S. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD AND EXPAND EASTWARD TO THE EAST
COAST AND ACROSS THE SOUTH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AS HIGHS CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID-90S WITH HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS. MOST OF THE
REGION IS UNDER MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK, INCLUDING MANY OF THE
MAJOR POPULATION CENTERS, INDICATING A LEVEL OF HEAT THAT CAN
IMPACT ANYONE WITHOUT ADEQUATE ACCESS TO AIR CONDITIONING OR
HYDRATION, ESPECIALLY THOSE GROUPS MORE SENSITIVE TO HEAT.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CLIMB ACROSS MUCH THE WEST,
PARTICULARLY FOR THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, AFTER MORE COMFORTABLE, BELOW
AVERAGE CONDITIONS TO START THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE COUNTRY FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
80S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY SEASONABLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE PLAINS WITH SOME LINGERING BELOW AVERAGE CONDITIONS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS GIVEN PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDINESS IN THE REGION.
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