854  
FXUS01 KWBC 051957  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
356 PM EDT SAT JUL 05 2025  
 
VALID 00Z SUN JUL 06 2025 - 00Z TUE JUL 08 2025  
 
...SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL HEAVY  
DOWNPOURS AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER SATURATED GROUNDS  
IN CENTRAL TEXAS...  
 
...TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE  
CAROLINAS EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING TO  
THE COASTAL PLAIN...  
 
...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FOLLOWED BY STRONG TO  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...  
 
...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION  
SATURDAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST COAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH  
NOTABLE POPULATION CENTERS ENTERING THE MAJOR HEAT RISK CATEGORY...  
 
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT SMALL-SCALE MID-LEVEL  
VORTEX RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVASTATING FLOODING IN CENTRAL TEXAS  
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH  
MULTIPLE ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) REMAINS IN EFFECT AS VERY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH  
LEVELS OF GULF MOISTURE CONTRIBUTE TO TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS  
(MULTIPLE INCHES OF RAIN PER HOUR), WHICH CAN LEAD TO SCATTERED,  
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AND DANGEROUS INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.  
WHILE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE  
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS, SOME STORMS MAY REDEVELOP BY AS EARLY AS  
SUNDAY MORNING AND LAST INTO THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH A CONTINUED RISK  
FOR FLASH FLOODING MAINLY FOR AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN HARD  
HIT FROM THE PRIOR DAYS RAINFALL. FORTUNATELY, DRIER WEATHER IS  
EXPECTED HEADING INTO MONDAY.  
 
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL, LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST,  
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO MAKE  
LANDFALL BETWEEN CHARLESTON, SC AND CAPE FEAR, NC, EARLY SUNDAY  
MORNING. HOWEVER, TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED  
THROUGHOUT THIS VICINITY BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING AND  
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS  
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES, LOCALLY UPWARDS OF  
6", MAY LEAD TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH A  
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) COVERING COASTAL  
AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND FURTHER INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL  
PLAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE INTO MONDAY  
BUT SOME ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING  
ARE EXPECTED FROM THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN NORTHWARD INTO THE  
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. IN ADDITION TO FLASH FLOODING,  
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE  
ATLANTIC COAST FROM FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES  
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BROADLY ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING  
COLD FRONT THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE FOCUS THROUGH SATURDAY  
EVENING WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHWEST TO  
THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH SOME ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND  
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE  
SOUTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY, BRINGING STORM CHANCES TO THE LOWER GREAT  
LAKES SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THEN  
INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY  
MONDAY, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED FLASH  
FLOODING EXPECTED. FURTHER WEST, STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN MOIST  
UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. FOR SATURDAY EVENING, STORMS  
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HIGH  
PLAINS WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER. THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FROM  
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (LEVEL 3/5) FOR THE THREAT OF VERY  
LARGE HAIL AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS. THE STORM FOCUS SHIFTS  
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND ADJACENT CENTRAL PLAINS  
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH SLIGHT RISKS BOTH DAYS FOR A CONTINUED  
THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED  
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE  
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY, WITH ISOLATED  
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE, DAILY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE FORECAST ALONG THE FLORIDA AND CENTRAL GULF COASTS. THE WEST  
SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.  
 
HOT, MUGGY WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES  
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID-90S. THESE  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD AND EXPAND EASTWARD TO THE EAST  
COAST AND ACROSS THE SOUTH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AS HIGHS CLIMB  
INTO THE LOW TO MID-90S WITH HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS. MOST OF THE  
REGION IS UNDER MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK, INCLUDING MANY OF THE  
MAJOR POPULATION CENTERS, INDICATING A LEVEL OF HEAT THAT CAN  
IMPACT ANYONE WITHOUT ADEQUATE ACCESS TO AIR CONDITIONING OR  
HYDRATION, ESPECIALLY THOSE GROUPS MORE SENSITIVE TO HEAT.  
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CLIMB ACROSS MUCH THE WEST,  
PARTICULARLY FOR THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN GREAT  
BASIN AND IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, AFTER MORE COMFORTABLE, BELOW  
AVERAGE CONDITIONS TO START THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL  
REMAIN COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN  
TIER OF THE COUNTRY FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST  
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW  
80S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY SEASONABLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH  
THE PLAINS WITH SOME LINGERING BELOW AVERAGE CONDITIONS INTO THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS GIVEN PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDINESS IN THE REGION.  
 
PUTNAM  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 
 
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