222  
FXUS01 KWBC 060844  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
400 AM EDT SUN JUL 06 2025  
 
VALID 12Z SUN JUL 06 2025 - 12Z TUE JUL 08 2025  
 
...SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL THREAT OF  
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OVER SATURATED GROUNDS IN CENTRAL TEXAS...  
 
...CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL MAKING LANDFALL OVER  
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA WITH HEAVY RAIN, STRONG TO GALE FORCE  
WINDS, AND THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS NEARBY COASTAL  
PLAIN...  
 
...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER  
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FOLLOWED BY ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...  
 
...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST  
COAST AS HEAT BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S.  
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ...  
 
AS A SMALL-SCALE MID-LEVEL VORTEX BEGINS TO COLLAPSE AND DIPS  
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS TOWARD MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING,  
MUCH OF THE FLOOD-RAVAGED REGION OF CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD EXPECT A  
LESSENING THREAT OF WIDESPREAD TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. HOWEVER,  
GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE  
REMAINING IN THE AREA, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT ANY MOMENT IN THE AREA. WITH WEAK WINDS  
ALOFT, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY,  
WHICH WOULD LEAD TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO LINGER OVER THE SAME  
LOCATIONS FOR RELATIVELY LONG DURATION, RESULTING IN A CONTINUED  
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING SCATTERED ACROSS THE FLOOD-SENSITIVE  
REGION OF CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. BY THIS EVENING, THESE  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FOR A MORE QUIET NIGHT  
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY SHOULD SEE SOME MORE ISOLATED  
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO POP DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY  
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND INTO OKLAHOMA BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING  
MONDAY EVENING.  
 
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL IS CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL OVER  
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING. BANDS OF SQUALLY  
THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG TO GALE FORCE  
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL PLAINS OF NORTH  
CAROLINA INTO EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY, WHERE TOTALS OF 2-4  
INCHES, LOCALLY UPWARDS OF 6" POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY  
LEAD TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. CHANTAL IS  
FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW AS IT MOVES FURTHER  
INLAND THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA BY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND  
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD  
ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA ON MONDAY BUT SOME ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS  
AND INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD  
AND COULD REACH INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. IN ADDITION TO FLASH  
FLOODING, LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED  
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE  
MID-ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  
 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT  
LAKES TODAY IN CONNECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WAVE OF LOW  
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH TODAY  
INTO TONIGHT. BY MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW EASTWARD  
MOTION TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND OHIO VALLEY WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, WITH SOME ISOLATED  
FLASH FLOODING INSTANCES POSSIBLE.  
 
ACROSS THE ROCKIES, EJECTIONS OF UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS  
WILL LEAD TO ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DOWNSTREAM.  
STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE HIGH  
PLAINS. THE FIRST ROUND OF THESE STORMS IS IN PROGRESS THIS  
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE SECOND  
ROUND IS FORECAST TO RE-FIRE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH  
PLAINS AND ADJACENT CENTRAL PLAINS. THE THIRD ROUND IS FORECAST  
FOR LATER ON MONDAY INTO EARLY ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL  
PLAINS WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS AN ENHANCED RISKS OF  
SEVERE WEATHER IN EFFECT WHERE TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL, AND HIGH  
WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE  
AS WELL. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH  
PLAINS TODAY AND MONDAY, WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.  
ELSEWHERE, DAILY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE  
FLORIDA AND CENTRAL GULF COASTS. THE WEST SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.  
 
HOT AND MUGGY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AND EXPAND EASTWARD  
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF  
DAYS AHEAD OF THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM  
CHANTAL MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE  
FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID-90S WITH HIGH HUMIDITY  
LEVELS IN THESE AREAS. MOST OF THE REGION IS UNDER MODERATE TO  
MAJOR HEAT RISK, INCLUDING MANY OF THE MAJOR POPULATION CENTERS,  
INDICATING A LEVEL OF HEAT THAT CAN IMPACT ANYONE WITHOUT ADEQUATE  
ACCESS TO AIR CONDITIONING OR HYDRATION, ESPECIALLY THOSE GROUPS  
MORE SENSITIVE TO HEAT. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CLIMB  
ACROSS MUCH THE WEST, PARTICULARLY FOR THE INTERIOR PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, AFTER  
MORE COMFORTABLE, BELOW AVERAGE CONDITIONS TO START THE HOLIDAY  
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY FROM THE NORTHERN  
ROCKIES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE, WITH  
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY  
SEASONABLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH SOME LINGERING BELOW  
AVERAGE CONDITIONS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS GIVEN PRECIPITATION  
AND CLOUDINESS IN THE REGION.  
 
KONG/PUTNAM  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 

 
 
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