087
FXUS01 KWBC 062000
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT SUN JUL 06 2025
VALID 00Z MON JUL 07 2025 - 00Z WED JUL 09 2025
...SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL THREAT OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OVER SATURATED GROUNDS IN CENTRAL TEXAS...
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL CONTINUES INLAND OVER THE CAROLINAS
BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE RISK OF SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING...
...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH A SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH
FLOOD THREAT EXPECTED ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE
NORTHEAST WEST THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL EXPAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST
AND SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR
HEAT RISK EXPECTED...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO
NORTH TEXAS AS A REMNANT MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO THE RECENT DISASTROUS FLOODING REMAINS IN THE
REGION. PLENTIFUL RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS WITH RAIN RATES UPWARDS OF 3"/HR AND WEAK WINDS ALOFT
WILL KEEP STORM MOTIONS SLOW, LEADING TO THE THREAT OF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL TOTALS. A FLOOD WATCH AS WELL AS MULTIPLE FLASH FLOODING
WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING REMAIN POSSIBLE. SCATTERED
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW (MONDAY) WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN AT LEAST AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING THREAT PARTICULARLY
FOR ALREADY HARD HIT AREAS WHERE GROUNDS REMAIN SATURATED. THE
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT RAINFALL CHANCES GOING INTO TUESDAY
SHOULD BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED.
CHANTAL MADE LANDFALL EARLIER THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND CONTINUES INLAND AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALONG THE
SOUTH CAROLINA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER AS OF MID-SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
WITH A FOCUS ALONG AN INLAND FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA. A SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS REGION AS VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4-6", POSSIBLY HIGHER, WILL BRING THE
THREAT OF SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. CHANTAL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD MONDAY BRINGING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES DEEPER INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, WHERE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY BUT REMNANT MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO
LEAD TO HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED QUITE BROADLY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN/CENTRAL U.S. THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS INCLUDING
ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHEAST
WESTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST. FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY, THE GREATEST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS
WELL AS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSOURI VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE A BIT SOUTHEASTWARD ON
MONDAY, BRINGING CHANCES MORE BROADLY INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST
BACK THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY/MID-SOUTH. ONLY A BIT MORE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY AS STORM CHANCES FOCUS ALONG THE COASTAL NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WHILE CONTINUING FOR THE OHIO
VALLEY/MID-SOUTH AS WELL AS BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SEASONABLE SUMMER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL
BRING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND VICINITY WHERE REMNANT
HIGHER MOISTURE FROM CHANTAL MAY LEAD TO HIGHER RAIN RATES. SOME
SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. TO THE WEST, THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG THE FRONT AND
IN THE PRESENCE OF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (LEVEL 2/5) FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
FOCUSED ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND ADJACENT CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING
WINDS AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL. AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) IS IN
EFFECT SUNDAY ACROSS THE SAME REGION AS WELL AS NORTHWARD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AS WELL AS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING.
HOT AND MUGGY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EAST COAST AND SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AHEAD OF THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM CHANTAL
MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT
RISK IS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE REGION, INCLUDING MANY OF THE
REGIONS LARGE POPULATION CENTERS, INDICATING A LEVEL OF HEAT THAT
CAN AFFECT ANYONE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING OR HYDRATION,
ESPECIALLY THOSE GROUPS MORE SENSITIVE TO HEAT. PROGRESSION OF THE
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD WILL BRING SOME RELIEF TO AREAS OF THE
INTERIOR NORTHWEST SOUTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY.
HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST AND DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH THE MORE OPPRESSIVE HEAT EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AS
WELL AS IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCHES/WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 110S. MORE SEASONABLE SUMMER TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
LINGER IN THE REGION.
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