087  
FXUS01 KWBC 062000  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
400 PM EDT SUN JUL 06 2025  
 
VALID 00Z MON JUL 07 2025 - 00Z WED JUL 09 2025  
 
...SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL THREAT OF  
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OVER SATURATED GROUNDS IN CENTRAL TEXAS...  
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL CONTINUES INLAND OVER THE CAROLINAS  
BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE RISK OF SCATTERED FLASH  
FLOODING...  
 
...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH A SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH  
FLOOD THREAT EXPECTED ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE  
NORTHEAST WEST THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE  
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...  
 
...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL EXPAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST  
AND SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR  
HEAT RISK EXPECTED...  
 
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO  
NORTH TEXAS AS A REMNANT MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT HAS  
CONTRIBUTED TO THE RECENT DISASTROUS FLOODING REMAINS IN THE  
REGION. PLENTIFUL RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT TORRENTIAL  
DOWNPOURS WITH RAIN RATES UPWARDS OF 3"/HR AND WEAK WINDS ALOFT  
WILL KEEP STORM MOTIONS SLOW, LEADING TO THE THREAT OF VERY HEAVY  
RAINFALL TOTALS. A FLOOD WATCH AS WELL AS MULTIPLE FLASH FLOODING  
WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS  
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING REMAIN POSSIBLE. SCATTERED  
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW (MONDAY) WHICH WILL  
MAINTAIN AT LEAST AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING THREAT PARTICULARLY  
FOR ALREADY HARD HIT AREAS WHERE GROUNDS REMAIN SATURATED. THE  
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT RAINFALL CHANCES GOING INTO TUESDAY  
SHOULD BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED.  
 
CHANTAL MADE LANDFALL EARLIER THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST OF THE  
CAROLINAS AND CONTINUES INLAND AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALONG THE  
SOUTH CAROLINA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER AS OF MID-SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE  
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA  
WITH A FOCUS ALONG AN INLAND FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM  
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA. A SLIGHT RISK  
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS REGION AS VERY  
HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4-6", POSSIBLY HIGHER, WILL BRING THE  
THREAT OF SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. CHANTAL IS  
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD MONDAY BRINGING THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES DEEPER INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, WHERE HEAVY  
DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM  
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY BUT REMNANT MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO  
LEAD TO HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE REGION.  
 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED QUITE BROADLY ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE EASTERN/CENTRAL U.S. THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS INCLUDING  
ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHEAST  
WESTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST. FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY, THE GREATEST  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS  
WELL AS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO THE MIDDLE  
MISSOURI VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE A BIT SOUTHEASTWARD ON  
MONDAY, BRINGING CHANCES MORE BROADLY INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST  
BACK THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO  
VALLEY/MID-SOUTH. ONLY A BIT MORE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS IS EXPECTED  
FOR TUESDAY AS STORM CHANCES FOCUS ALONG THE COASTAL NORTHEAST AND  
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WHILE CONTINUING FOR THE OHIO  
VALLEY/MID-SOUTH AS WELL AS BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SEASONABLE SUMMER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL  
BRING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING,  
PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND VICINITY WHERE REMNANT  
HIGHER MOISTURE FROM CHANTAL MAY LEAD TO HIGHER RAIN RATES. SOME  
SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. TO THE WEST, THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG THE FRONT AND  
IN THE PRESENCE OF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (LEVEL 2/5) FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER  
FOCUSED ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND ADJACENT CENTRAL PLAINS  
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING  
WINDS AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL. AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) IS IN  
EFFECT SUNDAY ACROSS THE SAME REGION AS WELL AS NORTHWARD INTO  
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF  
DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.  
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER  
MIDWEST AS WELL AS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY. HEAVY  
DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED FLASH  
FLOODING.  
 
HOT AND MUGGY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE EAST COAST AND SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS  
AHEAD OF THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM CHANTAL  
MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT  
RISK IS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE REGION, INCLUDING MANY OF THE  
REGIONS LARGE POPULATION CENTERS, INDICATING A LEVEL OF HEAT THAT  
CAN AFFECT ANYONE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING OR HYDRATION,  
ESPECIALLY THOSE GROUPS MORE SENSITIVE TO HEAT. PROGRESSION OF THE  
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD WILL BRING SOME RELIEF TO AREAS OF THE  
INTERIOR NORTHWEST SOUTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY.  
HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST AND DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT  
COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH THE MORE OPPRESSIVE HEAT EXPECTED ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AS  
WELL AS IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCHES/WARNINGS  
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO  
CLIMB INTO THE 110S. MORE SEASONABLE SUMMER TEMPERATURES ARE  
FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,  
PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION  
LINGER IN THE REGION.  
 
PUTNAM  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 
 
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