312  
FXUS01 KWBC 070852  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
400 AM EDT MON JUL 07 2025  
 
VALID 12Z MON JUL 07 2025 - 12Z WED JUL 09 2025  
 
...MORE SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF  
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT IN CENTRAL TEXAS...  
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL IS FORECAST TO TRACK THROUGH THE  
MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN BEFORE  
BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY  
MORNING...  
 
...A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT  
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY AND  
TONIGHT...  
 
...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE EAST COAST FOR THE  
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HEAT INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND  
DESERT SOUTHWEST...  
 
A VERY MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES  
ACROSS THE FLOOD-RAVAGED PORTION OF TEXAS. THUNDERSTORMS THAT  
AFFECTED PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO NORTH TEXAS YESTERDAY HAVE LARGELY  
TAPERED OFF THROUGH THE EARLY HOURS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, WITH A  
SUBTLE LOW TO MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINING IN PLACE, SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AT ANYTIME TODAY IN THIS  
ENVIRONMENT. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE FARTHER  
SOUTH TODAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE THE LOWER-LEVEL  
MOISTURE IS MOST ABUNDANT. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE  
ORGANIZED AND MOVE WESTWARD POSSIBLY ACROSS THE FLOOD-RAVAGED  
PORTION OF TEXAS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE STORMS INTERACT WITH  
THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT. FUELED BY DAYTIME HEATING, ADDITIONAL  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TODAY IN OTHER PARTS OF  
TEXAS AND EXTEND ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO  
VALLEY TOWARD INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD ONCE  
AGAIN SEE A LULL IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITIES BEFORE SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS POP UP ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. IT  
APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON  
TUESDAY WILL BE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AS A  
COLD FRONT DIPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  
 
MEANWHILE, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL HAS BEEN TRACKING  
NORTHEASTWARD FURTHER INLAND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. AN  
AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE  
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF CHANTAL. SINCE CHANTAL HAS  
WEAKENED SLOWER AND MOVED FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS, THE  
LATEST THINKING IS THAT CHANTAL WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST  
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION  
BEFORE BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT INTO  
TUESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES HAVE ALREADY  
BEEN REPORTED IN PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR MID-ATLANTIC. DEPENDING  
ON HOW WELL THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUSTAINED ON THE  
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF CHANTAL, ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL  
WILL RAISE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS JUST  
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TRACK OF CHANTAL THROUGH TONIGHT.  
 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MARCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM  
WEST TO EAST AND DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY INTO  
TONIGHT WITH THE EJECTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN  
ROCKIES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT TO  
ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE AREAS. FARTHER  
EAST, A COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE  
MID-MISSISSIPPI TO THE OHIO VALLEYS TODAY BEFORE MOVING INTO  
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A LOW PRESSURE  
WAVE. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE THESE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS  
REDEVELOPING FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE  
MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHEAST AS THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT PUSHES  
FARTHER EAST. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL DIP FARTHER  
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, ALLOWING DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO  
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE INCREASING THE CHANCE OF  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY.  
 
HOT AND MUGGY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
EAST COAST AND SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD OF THE  
SLOW-MOVING FRONT AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM CHANTAL MOVING INTO  
THE MID-ATLANTIC. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK IS IN  
PLACE THROUGHOUT THE REGION, INCLUDING MANY OF THE REGIONS LARGE  
POPULATION CENTERS, INDICATING A LEVEL OF HEAT THAT CAN AFFECT  
ANYONE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING OR HYDRATION, ESPECIALLY THOSE  
GROUPS MORE SENSITIVE TO HEAT. PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT  
SOUTHWARD WILL BRING SOME RELIEF OF THE HEAT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY  
BY TUESDAY. HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN  
COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST AND DESERT SOUTHWEST  
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH THE MORE OPPRESSIVE HEAT  
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AS WELL AS IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCHES/WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DESERT  
SOUTHWEST AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 110S. MORE  
SEASONABLE SUMMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND  
MIDWEST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION LINGER IN THE REGION.  
 
KONG/PUTNAM  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 
 
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