312
FXUS01 KWBC 070852
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT MON JUL 07 2025
VALID 12Z MON JUL 07 2025 - 12Z WED JUL 09 2025
...MORE SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT IN CENTRAL TEXAS...
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL IS FORECAST TO TRACK THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN BEFORE
BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...
...A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...
...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE EAST COAST FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HEAT INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
DESERT SOUTHWEST...
A VERY MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE FLOOD-RAVAGED PORTION OF TEXAS. THUNDERSTORMS THAT
AFFECTED PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO NORTH TEXAS YESTERDAY HAVE LARGELY
TAPERED OFF THROUGH THE EARLY HOURS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, WITH A
SUBTLE LOW TO MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINING IN PLACE, SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AT ANYTIME TODAY IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE FARTHER
SOUTH TODAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE THE LOWER-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS MOST ABUNDANT. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED AND MOVE WESTWARD POSSIBLY ACROSS THE FLOOD-RAVAGED
PORTION OF TEXAS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE STORMS INTERACT WITH
THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT. FUELED BY DAYTIME HEATING, ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TODAY IN OTHER PARTS OF
TEXAS AND EXTEND ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARD INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN SEE A LULL IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITIES BEFORE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POP UP ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. IT
APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY WILL BE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AS A
COLD FRONT DIPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL HAS BEEN TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD FURTHER INLAND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. AN
AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF CHANTAL. SINCE CHANTAL HAS
WEAKENED SLOWER AND MOVED FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS, THE
LATEST THINKING IS THAT CHANTAL WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BEFORE BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES HAVE ALREADY
BEEN REPORTED IN PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR MID-ATLANTIC. DEPENDING
ON HOW WELL THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUSTAINED ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF CHANTAL, ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL
WILL RAISE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS JUST
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TRACK OF CHANTAL THROUGH TONIGHT.
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MARCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEST TO EAST AND DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WITH THE EJECTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT TO
ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE AREAS. FARTHER
EAST, A COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI TO THE OHIO VALLEYS TODAY BEFORE MOVING INTO
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A LOW PRESSURE
WAVE. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE THESE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHEAST AS THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER EAST. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL DIP FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, ALLOWING DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
HOT AND MUGGY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EAST COAST AND SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD OF THE
SLOW-MOVING FRONT AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM CHANTAL MOVING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK IS IN
PLACE THROUGHOUT THE REGION, INCLUDING MANY OF THE REGIONS LARGE
POPULATION CENTERS, INDICATING A LEVEL OF HEAT THAT CAN AFFECT
ANYONE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING OR HYDRATION, ESPECIALLY THOSE
GROUPS MORE SENSITIVE TO HEAT. PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD WILL BRING SOME RELIEF OF THE HEAT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
BY TUESDAY. HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST AND DESERT SOUTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH THE MORE OPPRESSIVE HEAT
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AS WELL AS IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCHES/WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 110S. MORE
SEASONABLE SUMMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION LINGER IN THE REGION.
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