756  
FXUS06 KWBC 071939  
PMDMRD  
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS  
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD  
300 PM EDT MON JULY 07 2025  
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 13 - 17 2025  
 
AT THE OUTSET OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE  
EASTERN PACIFIC AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA, WITH WEAK, TRANSIENT TROUGHING  
PREDICTED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. BY DAY-10, A BROADENING OF THE  
MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS PREDICTED ACROSS THE DOMAIN, TIED TO THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT  
MAXIMUM SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS, AND LONGWAVE TROUGHING  
WEAKENING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THE 6-10 DAY MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND  
DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, AS WELL AS  
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. CLOSER TO NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS  
THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THE SOUTHEAST. A MORE VARIABLE MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS  
FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA, WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND GULF OF  
ALASKA AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE  
AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND TROUGHING POTENTIALLY REBUILDING OVER THE  
BERING SEA. FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE, NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ACROSS  
THE STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND AND FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHERE  
WEAKLY ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST.  
 
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS  
EASTERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS CONSISTENT WITH RIDGING OVER BOTH  
REGIONS AND STRONG SIGNALS IN THE GEFS AND ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS.  
TELECONNECTION ANALYSIS WITH THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERS OFF THE WEST  
COAST AND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN CANADA BOTH SUPPORT ENHANCED CHANCES OF  
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MIDWEST TIED TO WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPING  
IN BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE ECENS REFORECAST AND  
UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE, WITH THE GEFS COUNTERPARTS REMAINING COMPARATIVELY  
WARMER. AS A RESULT, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE INDICATED ACROSS  
THE MIDWEST, WITH A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHTED  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DUE TO INCREASED SOIL  
MOISTURE. THE UNCALIBRATED ECENS ALSO DEPICTS ENHANCED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD WHICH MAY BE TIED TO A  
POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE FEATURE DRIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND NEAR THE GULF  
COAST. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE WARMER ECENS REFORECAST TOOL AND GEFS, PROBABILITIES  
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN ELEVATED BUT ARE REDUCED SLIGHTLY COMPARED  
TO YESTERDAY. ACROSS ALASKA, PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE  
INCREASED ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE, SUPPORTED BY STRONG  
SIGNALS IN THE UNCALIBRATED TOOLS. HOWEVER, THE GEFS AND ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS  
SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN  
MAINLAND ALASKA. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE  
FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII SUPPORTED BY THE CONSOLIDATED FORECAST TOOL.  
 
INTERMITTENT FRONTAL ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO FAVOR BROADLY WEAK PROBABILITIES FOR  
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE AXIS PLACEMENT OVER  
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SUPPORTS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE EAST, FURTHER  
AIDED BY WEAK TROUGHING UPSTREAM ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND ENHANCED SOUTHERLY  
MID-LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM. THIS FAVORS ELEVATED CHANCES OF DAILY PRECIPITATION,  
POSSIBLY FURTHER ENHANCED BY A SLOW MOVING FRONT ALONG THE EAST COAST AND A  
SURFACE FEATURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST DURING THE PERIOD.  
THE GEFS AND ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS ALSO SUPPORT ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF  
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST, ALTHOUGH  
STRONGER MONSOON ACTIVITY APPEARS MORE LIKELY BEYOND DAY-10. RIDGING OVER THE  
EAST PACIFIC SUPPORTS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST. ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW SUPPORTS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED  
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA. NEAR- TO  
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINLAND  
SUPPORTED BY THE ECENS REFORECAST AND UNCALIBRATED TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII.  
 
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY  
8  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD  
MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN, OFFSET BY  
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST,  
AS WELL AS WEAK SIGNALS FOR ENHANCED PRECIPITATION.  
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 15 - 21 2025  
 
A BROAD RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO EXPAND ACROSS THE CONUS DURING WEEK-2, WITH A  
594-DM MID-LEVEL HEIGHT MAXIMUM DEPICTED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS IN THE MANUAL  
HEIGHT BLEND. BROAD +30 METER POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE INDICATED ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS (GREATER THAN +60 METERS ACROSS THE  
NORTHEAST). NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL  
AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. RIDGING AND AN ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH  
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC, WITH WEAK TROUGHING BECOMING  
ESTABLISHED OVER THE BERING SEA. AS A RESULT, ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE DEPICTED  
IN THE MANUAL BLEND ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA.  
NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE (WITH THE  
EXCEPTION OF A SMALL AREA OF ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EXTREME  
NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND).  
 
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS DURING WEEK-2,  
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT) ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  
INTERIOR WEST AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS STILL A WEAK SIGNAL FOR  
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN THE ECENS REFORECAST TOOL,  
BUT THE BROADENING RIDGE AXIS FAVORS A WARMING TREND AS SEEN IN OTHER GUIDANCE  
SUPPORTING A TILT TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COMBINATION OF INCREASING  
MONSOON MOISTURE AND INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE FAVOR ENHANCED CHANCES OF NEAR- TO  
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS. THE UNCALIBRATED GEFS AND ECENS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ENHANCED  
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA. HOWEVER,  
THE TREND TOWARD MORE RIDGING AND HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST PACIFIC FAVORS  
REDUCED PROBABILITIES, WITH THE ECENS REFORECAST TOOL DEPICTING ELEVATED  
CHANCES OF NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE STATE.  
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY INCREASED ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA  
WHERE THERE IS BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS. THE CONSOLIDATED FORECAST TOOL  
CONTINUES TO FAVOR ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS  
HAWAII.  
 
MONSOON ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS  
SHIFTS INTO A FAVORABLE POSITION OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE SECOND HALF OF  
THE PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION INCREASING  
ABOVE 50 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA. TO THE NORTH, BELOW-NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN BUT ARE REDUCED COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.  
NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE  
CONUS DUE TO CONTINUED PERIODIC SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY, WITH THE HIGHEST WEEK-2  
PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOCUSED ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND LOWER EASTERN SEABOARD  
TIED TO THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM DISCUSSED IN THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK. NEAR-  
TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED ACROSS ALASKA, WITH THE  
GEFS AND ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS FAVORING THE HIGHEST ODDS (GREATER THAN 40  
PERCENT) ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AS WEAK TROUGHING SHIFTS INTO THE  
BERING SEA. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII, WITH  
THE CONSOLIDATED FORECAST TOOL DEPICTING A DRYING TREND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
ISLANDS DURING WEEK-2.  
 
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON  
DAY 11  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO MODELS  
DEPICTING A LOW AMPLITUDE, STABLE PATTERN EMERGING, OFFSET BY WEAK SIGNALS IN  
THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS.  
 
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW  
 
NOTES:  
 
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL  
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN  
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.  
 
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS  
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW  
 
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,  
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE  
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE  
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.  
 
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,  
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES  
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE  
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.  
 
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A  
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL  
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES  
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO  
PRECIPITATION.  
 
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN  
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.  
 
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON  
JULY 17.  
 
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)  
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE  
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
20060617 - 19790720 - 19940715 - 20050628 - 20020719  
 
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)  
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE  
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19790719 - 20060616 - 20020718 - 20050627 - 19940715  
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE  
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 13 - 17 2025  
 
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN  
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B  
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B  
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B  
UTAH A B ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N  
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A  
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A  
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS B A  
MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A  
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A  
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A  
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A  
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A  
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N  
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A  
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A  
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A  
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A  
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N  
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N N  
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A  
 
 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE  
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 15 - 21 2025  
 
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN  
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N  
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A N  
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N  
UTAH A N ARIZONA B A COLORADO A N  
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A  
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N  
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A  
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A  
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N  
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N  
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A A  
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N  
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N  
MASS A N CONN A A RHODE IS A N  
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A  
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A  
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A  
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A  
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A  
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N  
 
LEGEND  
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN  
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN  
B - BELOW B - BELOW  
 
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL  
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE  
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS  
PMDMRD.  
 
 
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