960
FXUS01 KWBC 080834
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT TUE JUL 08 2025
VALID 12Z TUE JUL 08 2025 - 12Z THU JUL 10 2025
...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION AND ACROSS
THE MIDWEST LATER TODAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATER
TODAY INTO THE EVENING WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND
...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC LATER ON WEDNESDAY, AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO EARLY ON THURSDAY...
...MAJOR HEAT RISKS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST TODAY; TRIPLE-DIGIT
HEAT ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS WELL
AS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...
A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT IN THE LOWER TO
MID-LEVELS REMAINS PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WEAKNESS WILL PROMOTE INSTABILITY AND ALLOW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION DURING THE HEAT
OF THE DAY TODAY. THIS SLIGHT NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT IN THE POSITION
OF THE WEAKNESS SHOULD ALLOW A BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITIES ACROSS THE FLOOD-RAVAGED REGION OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY. THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION MAY BECOME ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THEY GENERALLY
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE THE THUNDERSTORMS LARGELY TAPER OFF. BUT
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP
UP FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THESE STORMS SHOULD DIE DOWN CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS THESE AREAS.
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HIGHLIGHTS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST
COAST ARE FORECAST TO SOAR WELL UP INTO THE 90S, WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS AND
RESULT IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME PUSHING THROUGH THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ONCE AGAIN LATER ON WEDNESDAY
OVER THE INTERIOR SECTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND MAY ORGANIZE
INTO BANDS THAT BRING A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT COULD CONTINUE
INTO EARLY ON THURSDAY.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT AND A LOW PRESSURE WAVE SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST LATER TODAY. SCATTERED STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
THIS MORNING AND THEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT AND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, CLUSTERS OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTAINING VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF A
LIFTING WARM FRONT AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURE-WISE ACROSS THE CONUS, MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AREA EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST, ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN, ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA, SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ARIZONA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NEVADA WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE
EXPECTED TO ECLIPSE 110 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN
EFFECT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THE HEAT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND INTO
THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME, THE HEAT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S. HEAT WILL ALSO BE
BUILDING TODAY ALONG A LARGE PORTION OF THE EAST FROM ATLANTA TO
BOSTON. HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN POSTED FOR COASTAL
LOCATIONS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE HEAT RISKS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAJOR FOR
TODAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE WEEK WILL
REDUCE THE HEAT RISKS ACROSS THESE AREAS.
KONG/ORAVEC
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