456  
FXUS06 KWBC 081902  
PMDMRD  
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS  
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD  
300 PM EDT TUE JULY 08 2025  
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 14 - 18 2025  
 
AT THE OUTSET OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE  
EASTERN PACIFIC AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA, WITH A BROAD, SHALLOW TROUGH  
PREDICTED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. BY DAY-10, THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT MAXIMUM  
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS, AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING  
IS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THE 6-10 DAY MANUAL 500-HPA  
HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE  
CONUS, AS WELL AS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, GREAT LAKES, OHIO AND TENNESSEE  
VALLEYS, AND MID-ATLANTIC. CLOSER TO NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL CONUS AND THE SOUTHEAST. A MORE VARIABLE MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST  
ACROSS ALASKA, WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND GULF OF ALASKA AT  
THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS  
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND TROUGHING POTENTIALLY REBUILDING OVER THE BERING  
SEA. FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE, NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ACROSS THE  
STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE FAR WESTERN  
ALEUTIANS WHERE WEAKLY ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST.  
 
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS  
EASTERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS CONSISTENT WITH RIDGING OVER BOTH  
REGIONS AND STRONG SIGNALS IN THE GEFS AND ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS. THE ECENS  
REFORECAST TOOL AND UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE SUPPORT INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR  
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY  
TELECONNECTIONS AS WELL AS INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE UNCALIBRATED ECENS ALSO DEPICTS ENHANCED CHANCES OF  
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD WHICH MAY BE  
TIED TO A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE FEATURE DRIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND NEAR  
THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE WARMER ECENS REFORECAST TOOL AND GEFS,  
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN ELEVATED BUT ARE LOWER  
COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH. ACROSS ALASKA, PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE, SUPPORTED BY  
STRONG SIGNALS IN THE UNCALIBRATED TOOLS. HOWEVER, THE GEFS AND ECENS  
REFORECAST TOOLS SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII SUPPORTED BY THE CONSOLIDATED FORECAST  
TOOL.  
 
INTERMITTENT FRONTAL ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO FAVOR BROADLY WEAK PROBABILITIES FOR  
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE ROCKIES EASTWARD. THE RIDGE AXIS PLACEMENT  
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SUPPORTS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE EAST,  
FURTHER AIDED BY WEAK TROUGHING UPSTREAM ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND ENHANCED  
SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM. THIS FAVORS ELEVATED CHANCES OF DAILY  
PRECIPITATION, POSSIBLY FURTHER ENHANCED BY A SLOW MOVING FRONT ALONG THE EAST  
COAST AND A SURFACE FEATURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST DURING  
THE PERIOD. THE GEFS AND ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS ALSO SUPPORT ENHANCED  
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE  
SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AS TROPICAL MOISTURE IS POTENTIALLY PULLED  
NORTHWARD INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEMS, WITH STRONGER MONSOON  
ACTIVITY MORE LIKELY BEYOND DAY-10 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. RIDGING OVER THE EAST  
PACIFIC SUPPORTS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN. ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW  
SUPPORTS ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR MOST OF ALASKA.  
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE  
BIG ISLAND WHERE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED.  
 
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY  
8  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD  
MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN, OFFSET BY  
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST,  
AS WELL AS WEAK SIGNALS FOR ENHANCED PRECIPITATION.  
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 16 - 22 2025  
 
A BROAD RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO EXPAND ACROSS THE CONUS DURING WEEK-2, WITH A  
594-DM MID-LEVEL HEIGHT MAXIMUM DEPICTED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS IN THE MANUAL  
HEIGHT BLEND. BROAD +30 METER POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE INDICATED ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS (GREATER THAN +60 METERS ACROSS THE  
NORTHEAST). NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. RIDGING AND AN ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH ARE  
FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC, WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING OF TROUGHING OVER  
THE BERING SEA. AS A RESULT, ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE DEPICTED IN THE MANUAL  
BLEND ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. NEAR-NORMAL  
HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE.  
 
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN AND EASTERN  
THIRDS OF THE CONUS DURING WEEK-2, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (GREATER THAN 50  
PERCENT) ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. THERE IS STILL A WEAK  
SIGNAL FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN THE ECENS  
REFORECAST TOOL, BUT THE BROADENING RIDGE AXIS FAVORS A WARMING TREND AS SEEN  
IN THE UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE SUPPORTING A FORECAST OF NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
A COMBINATION OF INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE AND INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE FAVOR  
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE UNCALIBRATED GEFS AND ECENS  
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS  
SOUTHERN ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE INCREASED ACROSS MOST OF  
NORTHERN ALASKA DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MOST OF THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE  
CONSOLIDATED FORECAST TOOL CONTINUES TO FAVOR ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF  
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS HAWAII.  
 
MONSOON ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS  
SHIFTS INTO A FAVORABLE POSITION OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE SECOND HALF OF  
THE PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION INCREASING  
ABOVE 50 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF ARIZONA. TO THE NORTH, NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ELEVATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST AND GREAT  
BASIN. WEAKLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAIN  
FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS DUE TO CONTINUED PERIODIC  
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY, WITH THE HIGHEST WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOCUSED ACROSS  
THE GULF COAST AND LOWER EASTERN SEABOARD TIED TO THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL  
SYSTEM DISCUSSED IN THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES  
ARE INCREASED ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS, WITH NEAR- TO  
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA SUPPORTED BY THE  
ECENS AND GEFS REFORECAST TOOLS. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS  
HAWAII, WITH THE CONSOLIDATED FORECAST TOOL DEPICTING A DRYING TREND DURING  
WEEK-2.  
 
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON  
DAY 11  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO MODELS  
DEPICTING AN EMERGING LOW AMPLITUDE, STABLE PATTERN, OFFSET BY WEAK SIGNALS IN  
THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS.  
 
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW  
 
NOTES:  
 
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL  
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN  
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.  
 
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS  
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW  
 
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,  
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE  
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE  
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.  
 
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,  
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES  
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE  
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.  
 
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A  
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL  
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES  
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO  
PRECIPITATION.  
 
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN  
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.  
 
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON  
JULY 17.  
 
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)  
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE  
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
20060618 - 19790720 - 19520701 - 20060710 - 19940715  
 
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)  
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE  
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19790719 - 20060617 - 20050701 - 19520630 - 20050626  
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE  
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 14 - 18 2025  
 
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN  
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N  
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B  
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A  
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO B A  
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A  
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A  
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS B A  
MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A  
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A  
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A  
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A  
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A  
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N  
MASS A N CONN A A RHODE IS A N  
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A  
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A  
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A  
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A  
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A  
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A  
 
 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE  
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 16 - 22 2025  
 
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN  
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N  
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A A  
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A A  
UTAH A A ARIZONA B A COLORADO N A  
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A  
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A  
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS N A  
MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A  
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A  
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A  
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A  
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A  
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A  
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A  
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A  
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A  
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A  
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A  
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A  
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N N  
 
LEGEND  
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN  
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN  
B - BELOW B - BELOW  
 
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL  
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE  
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS  
PMDMRD.  
 

 
 
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