378
FXUS01 KWBC 090812
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2025
VALID 12Z WED JUL 09 2025 - 12Z FRI JUL 11 2025
...THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...
...LATE-DAY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
...STORMS ALONG A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
WILL COOL TEMPERATURES; THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BE HEATING UP AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE RANGE OF 110-118 DEG PROMPT EXTREME HEAT
WARNINGS INTO THURSDAY...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR
TODAY AND THURSDAY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT SERVING AS A
LIFTING MECHANISM, RICH MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE CONVERGING ALONG A
LEE-SIDE TROUGH DURING THE HOTTEST TIMES OF THE DAY WILL FURTHER
FACILITATE AN ATMOPSHERE CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING HIGH RAINFALL
RATES. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS RAINFALL FORECAST
AMOUNTS OF 3-4 INCHES IN THE NEXT 3 DAYS FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN
CENTRAL VIRGINIA, AND 2-3 INCHES FROM DELAWARE TO THE JERSEY SHORE
AND ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. MULTIPLE WAVES OF STORMS AND
HIGH RAINFALL RATES MEAN FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. WPC HAS
INTRODUCED A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL
VIRGINIA TO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY,
WITH A SLIGHT RISK COVERING A GOOD CHUNK OF THE MID-ATLANTIC,
NEARBY APPALACHIANS INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY WILL SEE A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC WEATHER SETUP,
ONLY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EDGING FURTHER INTO THE NORTHEAST,
SHIFTING THE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE MOST
FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA ON
THURSDAY.
ANOTHER AREA MOST FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A FRONT BEGINNING TO LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A MORE WIDESPREAD
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH GETS
READY TO EJECT OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN U.S.
THE MORE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY WILL
LEAD TO A HIGHER THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THEREFORE, WPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO THE PUBLIC AND HOT WEATHER
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE CALIFORNIA VALLEYS TO NEW MEXICO MAY ENTER
THE LOW 100S. THE DESERTS OF ARIZONA AND CALIFORNIA ARE UNDER AN
EXTREME HEAT WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEARING RECORD HIGHS AND APPROACHING THE MID 110S F. THE NORTHEAST
SHOULD SEE THE MINI HEAT-WAVE END AS A FRONT SWINGS INTO THE AREA
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUTHEAST
WILL SEE TYPICAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR JULY, BUT APPARENT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S COULD STILL
RAISE HEAT RISK CONCERNS. FOR FIRE WEATHER THREATS, THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER ACROSS THE
INTERIOR NORTHWEST AND THE GREAT BASIN FOR TODAY, AS DRY FUELS AND
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
FIRE SPREAD.
KONG/WILDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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