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FXUS06 KWBC 091902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED JULY 09 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 15 - 19 2025
AT THE OUTSET OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA, WITH TROUGHING SITUATED ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA. THIS RIDGE-TROUGH ORIENTATION OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA
FAVORS ENHANCED NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE, WITH A BROAD 594-DM RIDGE EXPANDING ACROSS
THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS BY DAY-10. THE 6-10 DAY MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND
DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, AND THE GREAT BASIN, AS WELL AS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, GREAT LAKES,
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND MID-ATLANTIC. CLOSER TO NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THE SOUTHEAST. ACROSS ALASKA, TROUGHING
IS INITIALLY FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN MAINLAND, WITH THIS FEATURE FORECAST
TO RETROGRADE INTO THE BERING SEA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE, ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
FAVORED ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MAINLAND.
ENHANCED RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FAVOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND EASTERN THIRDS OF THE
CONUS, EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DYNAMICAL MODELS DEPICT A POTENT
COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST
DURING THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT, PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
INCREASED ABOVE 50 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE THE
SIGNAL FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS STRONGEST IN THE ECENS REFORECSAT TOOL,
BOTH THE UNCALIBRATED ECENS AND GEFS DEPICT A LARGE REGION OF THE CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL CONUS HAVING ENHANCED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUPPORTING THE INCREASED PROBABILITIES IN THE FORECAST. THE UNCALIBRATED ECENS
ALSO DEPICTS ENHANCED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE PERIOD WHICH MAY BE TIED TO A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE FEATURE DRIFTING
WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND NEAR THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE WARMER
ECENS REFORECAST TOOL AND GEFS, PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ELEVATED BUT ARE LOWER COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH. ACROSS ALASKA,
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE STATE, SUPPORTED BY STRONG SIGNALS IN THE UNCALIBRATED TOOLS. HOWEVER,
THE GEFS AND ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII SUPPORTED BY THE
CONSOLIDATED FORECAST TOOL.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM FAVORS INCREASED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES EASTWARD AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
INTO A REGION WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE CONTENT. A MORE ROBUST FRONT AS DEPICTED
IN THE ECENS MAY DRAW UP ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS LEADING TO RENEWED HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO
AND WESTERN TEXAS WHERE PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED ABOVE 50 PERCENT. SURFACE
LOW FORMATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG A DECAYING FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND ALONG
THE GULF COAST FAVORING ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER
THESE AREAS. RIDGING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC SUPPORTS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF THE ROCKIES. ENHANCED
ONSHORE FLOW SUPPORTS ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR
MOST OF ALASKA. THE STRONGEST ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE WEST
COAST OF ALASKA WHERE HIGHER PROBABILITIES (ABOVE 40 PERCENT) ARE HIGHLIGHTED.
CONVERSELY, WEAKENING FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS SUPPORT ENHANCED NEAR- TO
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. NEAR- TO
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII, WITH THE CONSOLIDATED
FORECAST TOOL DEPICTING A DRYING TREND DURING THE PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN, OFFSET BY
SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS, AND ITS IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 17 - 23 2025
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD, A BROAD RIDGE AXIS IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND ACROSS THE CONUS LATER IN WEEK-2, WITH A 594-DM MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT MAXIMUM DEPICTED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS IN THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND.
NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE CONUS, WITH
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES GREATER THAN +30 METERS INDICATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT BASIN, NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST. RIDGING AND AN ASSOCIATED
STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC, WITH
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF TROUGHING OVER THE BERING SEA. AS A RESULT, ABOVE-NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE DEPICTED IN THE MANUAL BLEND ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA, WITH LARGER
POSITIVE ANOMALIES FAVORED ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS
COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS
UNDERNEATH WEAKLY ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS AND SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND ECENS
REFORECAST TOOLS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE ELEVATED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST EXTENDING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TIED TO RELATIVELY COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD, AS WELL AS ENHANCED MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST
TIED TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES EAST
AND TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE WARMER (COLDER) GEFS (ECENS) REFORECAST
TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST, FLORIDA, THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DUE TO LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE FRONT. THE UNCALIBRATED GEFS AND ECENS CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE INCREASED ACROSS MOST
OF NORTHERN ALASKA DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MOST OF THE FORECAST TOOLS, WITH
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES NOW FAVORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA WHERE THESE TOOLS
HAVE TRENDED WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE CONSOLIDATED FORECAST TOOL
CONTINUES TO FAVOR ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
HAWAII.
MONSOON ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS INTO A FAVORABLE POSITION OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS LESS ROBUST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THEREFORE,
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE NOW IN THE 40-50 PERCENT
RANGE, BUT ALSO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS WHICH MAY HAVE
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE PERIOD DUE TO MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT ALONG
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ELEVATED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST COAST AND EXTENDING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS TIED TO WEAK PRECIPITATION SIGNALS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE SUBSISTENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
WEAKLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAIN FAVORED
ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS DUE TO CONTINUED PERIODIC SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY,
WITH THE HIGHEST WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOCUSED ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND
LOWER EASTERN SEABOARD TIED TO THE POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW OR SHORTWAVE DISCUSSED
IN THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED
ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS, WITH NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FAVORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA SUPPORTED BY THE ECENS AND GEFS
REFORECAST TOOLS. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO MODELS
DEPICTING AN EMERGING LOW AMPLITUDE, STABLE PATTERN, OFFSET BY WEAK SIGNALS IN
THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 17.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19520702 - 20060710 - 20020624 - 19810703 - 19940718
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19520701 - 20060710 - 20020624 - 19810703 - 20050702
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 15 - 19 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH A A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 17 - 23 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A N NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING N N
UTAH A A ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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