301
FXUS01 KWBC 092001
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT WED JUL 09 2025
VALID 00Z THU JUL 10 2025 - 00Z SAT JUL 12 2025
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK (AT LEAST 40%) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONCERNS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RELATED IMPACTS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY...
...THERE IS A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA AND
FAR WESTERN UTAH...
A SLOW MOVING TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ACROSS THE EAST COAST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT, WHERE SOILS ARE ALREADY
RELATIVELY SATURATED. HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF 2-4 INCHES IN
SOME PLACES MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING, WHICH IS WHY THERE'S A
MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA DOWN THROUGH FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW
JERSEY, NORTHERN DELAWARE, CENTRAL MARYLAND, DC, THE VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT AND NORTH/CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. URBAN AREAS ARE
PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE DUE TO THE UBIQUITY OF IMPERVIOUS
SURFACES, WHICH GENERATE RUNOFF WHEN RAINED ON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS WILL GENERATE
STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND
UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. SPC HAS A SEPARATE SLIGHT RISK AREA OUT
FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. THERE'S A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA, SOUTH
DAKOTA, IOWA, MINNESOTA, WISCONSIN, MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS.
A RETROGRADING UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAJOR
TO ISOLATED EXTREME HEATRISK IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS COMING
WEEKEND. MAJOR HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER DRY SOILS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
CRITICAL RISK OF FIRES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA AND FAR
WESTERN UTAH THIS EVENING.
KEBEDE
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