075
FXUS02 KWBC 101914
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
314 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
VALID 12Z SUN JUL 13 2025 - 12Z THU JUL 17 2025
...DAILY HEAVY RAIN THREATS ARE FORECAST FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
..OVERVIEW
UPPER RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY
WHILE TROUGHING SHIFTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST. A
ZONAL NORTHERN STREAM JET OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA AMPLIFIES INTO A
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE DEVELOPING TROUGH
WILL SEND A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY AIDING SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY EAST FROM THE ROCKIES.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THERE IS DECENT GLOBAL AGREEMENT ON LONGER WAVE FEATURES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. A GENERAL SLOWING TREND TO THE EARLY TO MID
WEEK TROUGH PROGRESSION OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS IS NOTED WHILE
A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION FOR THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST TROUGH
IS PREFERRED. A GENERAL MODEL BLEND PREFERENCE WORKS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD, THEN TO AVOID THE QUICKER GFS FOR THE NORTH- CENTRAL
TROUGH. ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE USED TO FILL THE GAPS BEYOND THE UKMET
AND WHEN THE GFS SHARE WAS REDUCED.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM A TROUGH DRIFTING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FROM UPSTATE
NEW YORK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, THE MID-SOUTH, SOUTHERN PLAINS,
TO WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A DAY 4 MARGINAL RISK IS
MAINTAINED ACROSS THIS AREA WITH A SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST
PER UPDATED CONSENSUS ON A FASTER TIMING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR DAY 5 WITH A FURTHER SHIFT EAST FOR THE NORTHEAST,
WITH A REPEAT FOR THE MID-SOUTH, SOUTHERN PLAINS, WEST TEXAS, AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WHERE THE MARGINAL RISK WAS EXPANDED THROUGH.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO FLORIDA BEGINNING SUNDAY, BUT
INCREASING BY MONDAY THANKS TO A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
HEAVIER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED THERE THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH RISKS FOR FLASH PONDING/FLOODING. THE DAY 4
MARGINAL RISK WAS SHRUNK A BIT BASED ON LESS COVERAGE/INTENSITY
FORECAST, BUT IT IS MAINTAINED FOR DAY 5 (WITH AN EXPECTATION FOR
AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK FOR WHAT IS CURRENTLY DAYS 6/7).
A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO ENTER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL USHER IN THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA, SOILS REQUIRE LESS MOISTURE BEFORE
RAIN BECOMES EXCESSIVE. THE DAY 5 MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR THIS PART
OF THE COUNTRY WAS EXPANDED A BIT GIVEN THE 12Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.
HOT WEATHER WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH
MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS. DAILY MAXIMUMS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MANY LOCATIONS CLIMBING INTO THE 100S AND 110S FOR THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST, AND NEARING/EXCEEDING 100F FARTHER NORTH IN
INTERIOR/LOWER ELEVATION AREAS OF THE GREAT BASIN.
HOWEVER, AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE
MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE CURRENT PROJECTIONS ARE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR THE
SOUTH- CENTRAL U.S. FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS CLOUDS AND RAIN HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN. THE NORTHEAST WILL SEE A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTER THE TROUGH CLEARS. MEANWHILE THE
SOUTHEAST SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE, FOR TYPICAL
SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
JACKSON
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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