902
FXUS01 KWBC 102015
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
414 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
VALID 00Z FRI JUL 11 2025 - 00Z SUN JUL 13 2025
...STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO IMPACT PARTS OF IOWA
EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...
...AREAS AROUND COLORADO, NEW MEXICO, AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ALONG A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...
...HEAT OUT WEST WILL BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BRINGING
HAZARDOUS HEAT RISKS TO PACIFIC RESIDENTS...
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR SEVER
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, PARTICULARLY FROM
IOWA TO POINTS AROUND CHICAGO. CLUSTERS OF STORMS COULD ORGANIZE
AND CONTAIN HIGH RAINFALL RATES. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS ACTIVE FOR AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS STORMS RE-FIRE IN SIMILAR AREAS. 2-3
INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD BE OBSERVED, LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, FOR LOCALES IN THE MIDWEST. CHICAGO WILL BE A
SENSITIVE URBAN AREA TO WATCH FOR FLOODING IMPACTS. AS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER FROM MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. AMPLE
INSTABILITY AND MODERATE WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO CONTAIN HAIL AND THEN TRANSITION TO A STRAIGHT LINE WIND
THREAT AS STORMS CONGEAL, ACCORDING TO SPC. A TORNADO OR TWO IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE EAST COAST WILL SEE SUMMER THUNDERSTORMS WITH A UNSTABLE AND
HUMID AIR MASS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE LOCALLY STRONG FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS WET DOWN-BURST POTENTIAL BRINGS THE THREAT
OF GUSTY WINDS. SOME LOW LYING AREAS COULD SEE PONDING AS RAINFALL
RATES WILL BE HIGH WITH PULSE AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
AREAS AROUND COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE AND
BRING STRONG, GUSTY WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWING
DOWN AND PROVIDING LIFT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. A SLIGHT
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR OKLAHOMA, TEXAS, AND
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY.
THE OTHER BIG WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE HEAT BUILDING ACROSS THE
WEST. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK FROM THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE STILL
AND VERY HOT WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 110 F LIKELY. THE CALIFORNIA
VALLEYS WILL BE ENTERING THE 100S OVER THE WEEKEND AND HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN
OREGON, TEMPERATURES WILL BE FEELING OVER 100. THIS HAS PROMPTED
AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH. ANOTHER HOT SPOT WILL BE INTERIOR
WASHINGTON AND OREGON AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S AND MAY
ECLIPSE 100 BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE COOL
BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WILDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page