423
FXUS02 KWBC 110702
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
302 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2025
VALID 12Z MON JUL 14 2025 - 12Z FRI JUL 18 2025
...DAILY HEAVY RAIN THREATS ARE FORECAST FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
..OVERVIEW
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE MUCH OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD NEXT WEEK WITH AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE STRETCHED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. A SHORTWAVE FROM THE BASE OF AN INITIALLY
ZONAL JET ACROSS CANADA WILL AMPLIFY INTO A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY, DRIFTING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. AIDING CONVECTION OVER
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY EAST OF THE ROCKIES. ELSEWHERE, WEAK ENERGY
NEAR/OVER FLORIDA WILL KEEP DAILY RAIN THREATS OVER THE SUNSHINE
STATE THROUGH THE WEEK, AND ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST BY LATE WEEK.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE GUIDANCE ON THE LARGE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, BUT WITH SOME NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF FEATURES THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW. THE GFS WAS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TIER TUESDAY-THURSDAY, WITH BETTER AGREEMENT FROM
ENSEMBLES FOR A FASTER SOLUTION AS ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF AND CMC.
OUT WEST, ENERGY ROUNDING A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL
DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA, BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION AND PLACEMENT BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE WEEK. THE WPC FORECAST LEANED MORE
HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF AND CMC EARLY WEEK, TRENDING TOWARDS MAJORITY
WEIGHT OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS BY LATE WEEK TO MITIGATE THE
DIFFERENCES DESCRIBED ABOVE.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE EAST WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THIS REGION THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE FRONT DISSIPATES, AND A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE DAY
4/MONDAY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK (ERO). UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
ACROSS TEXAS WILL CONTINUE A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT INTO MONDAY AS
WELL, WITH ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK FOR PORTIONS OF WEST AND CENTRAL
TEXAS ON THE ERO FOR MONDAY.
TO THE NORTH, A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND
EASTWARD NEXT WEEK WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESULTING IN A HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THREAT. A MARGINAL RISK IS HIGHLIGHTED FOR PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY, EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
BY TUESDAY, THOUGH STILL WITH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY
WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN FALLS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE EAST COAST NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST/FOUR
CORNERS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES REGION LATER IN THE WEEK.
ELSEWHERE, UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER FLORIDA WILL LEAD TO DAILY
HEAVY RAINFALL THREATS, WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE PENINSULA OVER A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY THOUGH IN EXACTLY HOW MUCH RAIN
WILL FALL, AND WITH HIGH FLASH FLOOD VALUES, MAINTAINED JUST BROAD
MARGINALS OVER THE STATE FOR THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ERO PERIODS.
HOT WEATHER WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH
MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS. DAILY MAXIMUMS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MANY LOCATIONS CLIMBING INTO THE 100S AND 110S FOR THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST, AND NEARING/EXCEEDING 100F FARTHER NORTH IN
INTERIOR/LOWER ELEVATION AREAS OF THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THE SOUTH- CENTRAL U.S. FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS CLOUDS
AND RAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. THE NORTHEAST WILL SEE A RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTER THE TROUGH CLEARS.
MEANWHILE THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE, FOR TYPICAL SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
SANTORELLI
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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